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Employment Impacts of EU Biofuels Policy: Combining Bottom-up Technology Information and Sectoral Market Simulations in an Input-output Framework


Author Info

  • Mongelli, Ignazio
  • Löschel, Andreas
  • Neuwahl, Frederik
  • Delgado, Luis


This paper analyses the employment consequences of policies aimed to support biofuels in the European Union. The promotion of biofuel use has been advocated as a means to promote the sustainable use of natural resources and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions originating from transport activities on the one hand, and to reduce dependence on imported oil and thereby increase security of the European energy supply on the other hand. The employment impacts of increasing biofuels shares are calculated by taking into account a set of elements comprising the demand for capital goods required to produce biofuels, the additional demand for agricultural feedstock, higher fuel prices or reduced household budget in the case of price subsidisation, price effects ensuing from a hypothetical world oil price reduction linked to substitution in the EU market, and price impacts on agro-food commodities. The calculations refer to scenarios for the year 2020 targets as set out by the recent Renewable Energy Roadmap. Employment effects are assessed in an input-output framework taking into account bottom-up technology information to specify biofuels activities and linked to partial equilibrium models for the agricultural and energy sectors. The simulations suggest that biofuels targets on the order of 10-15% could be achieved without adverse net employment effects. -- In diesem Papier werden die Beschäftigungswirkungen der Förderung von Biokraftstoffen in der Europäischen Union untersucht. Die Förderung von Biokraftstoffen wird mit der nachhaltigen Nutzung natürlicher Ressourcen, der Reduktion von Treibhausgasemissionen im Transportsektor und der Verminderung der Erdölabhängigkeit und damit einhergehender erhöhter Energiesicherheit in Europa begründet. Bei der Quantifizierung der Beschäftigungseffekte der Biokraftstoffförderung in Europa wurden verschiedene Effekte berücksichtigt: gesteigerte Nachfrage nach Agrarerzeugnissen und Kapitalgütern zu Herstellung von Biokraftstoffen, höhere Kraftstoffpreise, Preisrückgänge auf dem Rohölmarkt infolge der Substitutionseffekte des Biokraftstoffeinsatzes und Preissteigerungen bei Agrarprodukten und Lebensmitteln. Dazu wird ein Input-Output Modell um die Biokraftstofferzeugung erweitert und mit Partialmodellen des Agrar- und Energiesektors gekoppelt. Als besonders wichtige Faktoren für potentielle Beschäftigungseffekte haben sich die Entwicklung einer auf den Weltmärkten führenden EU Biokraftstoffindustrie und der abschwächende Effekte der Biokraftstoffe auf den Ölpreis erwiesen. Die Simulationen legen nahe, dass sich die verschiedenen positiven und negativen Effekte weitgehend kompensieren und ein Biokraftstoffanteil von 10 ? 15 Prozent ohne signifikant negative Beschäftigungseffekte erzielt werden kann.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 08-049.

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Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7359

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Keywords: Biofuels; Input-output; Employment;

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Cited by:
  1. Rao, Narasimha D., 2013. "Distributional impacts of climate change mitigation in Indian electricity: The influence of governance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1344-1356.
  2. Wang, Can & Zhang, Weishi & Cai, Wenjia & Xie, Xi, 2013. "Employment impacts of CDM projects in China's power sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 481-491.
  3. Tsita, Katerina G. & Pilavachi, Petros A., 2013. "Evaluation of next generation biomass derived fuels for the transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 443-455.


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