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Braucht es monetäre und reale Konvergenz für eine (in einer) Währungsunion? Anmerkungen zu einer aktuellen Debatte

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  • Sell, Friedrich L.
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    Abstract

    In diesem Beitrag folgen wir der aktuellen Diskussion über die Aussagekraft der Maastricht-Kriterien für die Auswahl von Ländern zur Teilnahme an der EWU. Es wird gezeigt, daß diese Kriterien weder die Theorie optimaler Währungsgebiete ausreichend reflektieren noch der Endogenitätsproblematik ausweichen können. Realwirtschaftliche Konvergenz dagegen gemessen an der Höhe des eigenen PKE und am Abstand zu den führenden Ländern hilft bei der Auswahl möglicher Kandidaten unter den emerging economies für die Aufnahme in die EWU. Vor dem Hintergrund des Balassa-Samuelson und des Kravis-Lipsey-Bhagwati-Effekts ergibt die theoretische Analyse, daß die Variabilität des realen Wechselkurses in einer Währungsunion um so mehr steigt, je höher der Anteil der Nontradeables in den Mitgliedstaaten, je größer die Zahl der (identischen) Teilnehmer an der Währungsunion mit entsprechend geringem Wertschöpfungsanteil und je stärker das Gefälle im Wachstum der beiden Sektoren unter den Mitgliedern der Währungsunion ist. Bei der Aufnahme weiterer Mitglieder in die EURO-Zone sind sowohl realwirtschaftliche als auch Finanzmarktkriterien heranzuziehen. Solange bei Kandidaten ein zu großes Gefälle zum Kern der EWU besteht, können realwirtschaftliche und Finanzmarktkriterien im Grunde genommen als Ersatz für die Maastricht-Kriterien dienen. Ein Vorbild können dabei entsprechende Vorschläge in Artikel 121 des EG-Vertrages abgeben. -- This paper deals with main issues of the ongoing discussion about the appropriateness of the Maastricht criteria to determine the members of the EURO zone. The Maastricht criteria suffer from two weaknesses: neither do they reflect sufficiently the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA) nor can they avoid the so-called endogeneity problem. Opposed to that the level of the per capita income achieved and the distance to the advanced countries seem to play an important role when it comes to assess the candidates for a monetary union from the group of the emerging economies. Furthermore, in the framework of the Balassa-Samuelson and the Kravis-Lipsey-Bhagwati effects, we show that the variability of the real exchange rate within a monetary union rises with the share non-tradeables goods have in the economy of member countries, the higher the number of small participants in the common currency area is and the greater the descent of growth observed among the two sectors (tradeables, non-tradeables) in the respective member countries. In the light of the forthcoming widening of the EURO zone we suggest to make use of additional criteria which stress real convergence as they can be found in article 121 of the European treaty. Moreover, as long as the distance to the core of the EMU countries is still large, real convergence criteria can serve as substitutes to the Maastricht criteria.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 2001,1.

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    Date of creation: 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20011

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    Keywords: EWU; monetäre und reale Konvergenz; EG-Vertrag; EMU; monetary and real convergence; EC treaty; OCA theory;

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    References

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    1. Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1982. "Towards an Explanation of National Price Levels," NBER Working Papers 1034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Vaubel, Roland, 1976. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European Community: The empirical evidence and its implications for European currency unification," Kiel Working Papers 39, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Michael Reutter & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," CESifo Working Paper Series 377, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Monetary union and convergence economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1091-1101, April.
    5. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1984. "Why Are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 279-86, June.
    6. Kamps, Christophe & Scheide, Joachim, 2001. "End of the upswing in Euroland: No reason to cut interest rates," Kiel Discussion Papers 374, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
    8. Gerold Blümle & Friedrich Sell, 1998. "A positive theory of optimal personal income distribution and growth," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(4), pages 331-352, December.
    9. Friedrich L. Sell, 1996. "On the theoretical determination of optimal currency areas in the framework of club theory," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 126-143, Autumn.
    10. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
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