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A fiscal outlook for Poland: Update 2014. Background paper prepared for the World Bank's Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for Poland

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  • Jabłonowski, Janusz
  • Müller, Christoph
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    Abstract

    Poland faces one of the most rapidly ageing population in Europe. The old age dependency ratio is expected to triple until 2060. Against this background, our paper examines the sustainability of Polish public finances and its isolated subsystems. We consider the profound recent reforms including the transfer of 2nd pillar pension obligations to the general government in 2014. Furthermore, we extend our previous computations (Jablonowski et al., 2011) by using data from household budget surveys as well as large pension contributors' and tax payers' databases. Our results show that the pension reforms enacted since 2011 improve the long-term stability of public finances. A risk for fiscal sustainability represents, however, the public health care system which may be severely challenged by the ageing process and a continuing excess cost growth. We assess a number of health reforms including co-payments and a shift to tax financing which have the potential to stabilize the public health care system. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg in its series FZG Discussion Papers with number 54.

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    Date of creation: 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:54

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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational accounting: a new approach for understanding the effects of fiscal policy on saving," Working Paper 9107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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    7. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
    8. Sintonen, Harri & Linnosmaa, Ismo, 2000. "Economics of dental services," Handbook of Health Economics, Elsevier, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1251-1296 Elsevier.
    9. Andreas Werblow & Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(10), pages 1109-1126.
    10. Hartwig, Jochen, 2008. "What drives health care expenditure?--Baumol's model of 'unbalanced growth' revisited," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 603-623, May.
    11. Kamil Dybczak & Bartosz Przywara, 2010. "The role of technology in health care expenditure in the EU," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 400, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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