Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany
AbstractIn this paper we address the question how the generosity of the benefit rule of the German public pension system has changed during the past three decades and how this development can be explained by demographic changes. Firstly, we illustrate the political risk of benefit rule changes for individuals. We find that depending on the birth year and the considered scenario the relative losses vary between 30 and nearly 60 percent. Secondly, we estimate how demographic developments have triggered these changes in generosity. Our results suggest that future developments of the old-age dependency ratio have an influence on the determination of generosity.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1021.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
social security wealth; demography; political economy; Germany;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-05-02 (All new papers)
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