IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ciwdps/32015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Youth bulges, insurrections, and politico-economic institutions: Theory and empirical evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Apolte, Thomas
  • Gerling, Lena

Abstract

We develop a model of insurrection markets and integrate the youth bulge as measured by the relative youth cohort size. As youth-specific characteristics we define the young person's attitude toward revolutionary groups and the government, the degree of risk aversion and the relative productivity of young people on the insurrection market as compared to the official labor market. We find that, apart from certain spontaneous outbreaks of violence or riots, youth bulges alone are not a good predictor for political violence. Nevertheless, deliberate insurrection activities that aim at changing political and economic power positions are indeed affected by youth bulges, but indirectly so, and their intensity is driven by the characteristics of the respective underlying set of politico-economic institutions. We test our implications in an empirical model based on cross-country panel data and find that the effect of the relative youth cohort size on insurrection outbreaks is moderated by changes in the underlying istitutional setting, and more precisely changes in the labor-market conditions as approximaed by unemployment rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Apolte, Thomas & Gerling, Lena, 2015. "Youth bulges, insurrections, and politico-economic institutions: Theory and empirical evidence," CIW Discussion Papers 3/2015, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ciwdps:32015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/108970/1/821162411.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2001. "A Theory of Political Transitions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 938-963, September.
    2. Grossman, Herschel I, 1999. "Kleptocracy and Revolutions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 267-283, April.
    3. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    4. Alan B. Krueger, 2007. "Introduction to What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism," Introductory Chapters, in: What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism, Princeton University Press.
    5. Easterlin, Richard A., 1987. "Birth and Fortune," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226180328, September.
    6. Fields, Gary S., 2012. "Working Hard, Working Poor: A Global Journey," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199794645.
    7. Golub, Stephen & Hayat, Faraz, 2014. "Employment, unemployment, and underemployment in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 014, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Filipe R. Campante & Davin Chor, 2012. "Why Was the Arab World Poised for Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, and the Arab Spring," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 167-188, Spring.
    9. Grossman, Herschel I, 1991. "A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 912-921, September.
    10. Stephen Golub & Faraz Hayat, 2014. "Employment, Unemployment, and Underemployment in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-014, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Thomas Apolte, 2012. "Why is there no revolution in North Korea?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 561-578, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Apolte, Thomas, 2014. "Youth bulges, insurrections, and politico-economic institutions," CIW Discussion Papers 2/2014, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    2. Thomas Apolte & Lena Gerling, 2018. "Youth bulges, insurrections and labor-market restrictions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 63-93, April.
    3. Robert MacCulloch & Silvia Pezzini, 2010. "The Roles of Freedom, Growth, and Religion in the Taste for Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 329-358, May.
    4. Campante, Filipe R. & Chor, Davin, 2014. "“The people want the fall of the regime”: Schooling, political protest, and the economy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 495-517.
    5. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    6. Apolte, Thomas, 2015. "Abused rebels and winning coalitions: Regime change under the pressure of rebellions," CIW Discussion Papers 1/2015, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    7. Christopher Blattman, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.
    8. Coyne,Christopher J., 2020. "Defense, Peace, and War Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108724036.
    9. Ola Olsson & Heather Congdon Fors, 2004. "Congo: The Prize of Predation," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 321-336, May.
    10. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2013. "On The Theory Of Ethnic Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 161-192, January.
    11. Dagaev, Dmitry & Lamberova, Natalia & Sobolev, Anton, 2019. "Stability of revolutionary governments in the face of mass protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    12. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    13. Shahnawaz Sheikh & Nugent Jeffery B, 2004. "Is Natural Resource Wealth Compatible with Good Governance?," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 1-33, December.
    14. Dorsch, Michael & Dunz, Karl & Maarek, Paul, 2012. "Asymmetric Information and Inefficient Regulation of Firms Under the Threat of Revolution," MPRA Paper 38879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Lena Gerling, 2018. "Rebellious Youth: Evidence on the Link between Youth Bulges, Institutional Bottlenecks, and Conflict," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 64(4), pages 577-616.
    16. M. Christian Lehmann, 2020. "Aiding refugees, aiding peace?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(5), pages 1687-1704, September.
    17. Adegboye , Abidemi C. & Arodoye , Nosakhare L., 2023. "Structural Changes and Employment Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Demographic Structure Matter?," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 48(2), pages 143-166, June.
    18. Michael Batu, 2019. "Can remittances buy peace?," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 891-913, October.
    19. MacCulloch, Robert, 1999. "What makes a revolution?," ZEI Working Papers B 24-1999, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    20. Jean-François, MAYSTADT, 2007. "Does inequality make us rebel ? A renewed theoretical model applied to South Mexico," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007041, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ciwdps:32015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ilmuede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.