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A stylized model of China’s growth since 1978

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  • Glawe, Linda
  • Wagner, Helmut

Abstract

This paper develops a stylized multi-sector growth model of China's economy. We choose a neoclassical modeling approach and focus on the reform process under Deng Xiaoping as China's main growth driver since 1978. Following the literature, we distinguish between three major reform periods, namely the agricultural (1978--1984), the industrial (1984--1992) and the foreign-trade reform period (1992--present). Reflecting the neoclassical view, our model explains China's growth process since 1978 as a sequence of transitory growth phases generated by the reforms. We discuss our model's implications for China's future growth and the middle-income trap as well as growth-stimulating policies in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "A stylized model of China’s growth since 1978," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 5/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ceames:52017
    DOI: 10.18445/20190123-162651-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "The Deep Determinants of the Middle-Income Trap," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 10/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.
    3. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "The Deep Determinants at More Subtle Stages of Development: The Example of the Middle-Income Trap Phenomenon," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 11/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.
    4. Wagner, Helmut, 2018. "Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 13/2018, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    multi-sector growth modeling; neoclassical growth theory; structural change; China; middle-income trap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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