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Why are bank runs sometimes partial?

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  • Kiema, Ilkka
  • Jokivuolle, Esa

Abstract

​Concern that government may not guarantee bank deposits in a future crisis can cause a bank run. The government may break its guarantee during a severe crisis because of time-inconsistent preferences regarding the use of public resources. However, as deposits are with-drawn during the bank run, the size of the government's liability to guarantee the remaining deposits is gradually reduced, which increases the government's incentive to provide the promised guarantee. This in turn reduces depositors' incentive to withdraw, which may explain why bank runs sometimes remain partial. Our model yields an endogenously determined probability and size of a partial bank run. These depend on a common signal as to the future state of the economy, the cost of liquidity provision to banks, and the government's reputational cost of breaking the deposit guarantee. We apply the model to a multi-country deposit insurance scheme, an idea that has been aired in the context of the European Banking Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiema, Ilkka & Jokivuolle, Esa, 2015. "Why are bank runs sometimes partial?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2015, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2015_010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hasman, Augusto & López, Ángel L. & SamartIín, Margarita, 2011. "Government, taxes and banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2761-2770, October.
    2. Itay Goldstein & Ady Pauzner, 2005. "Demand–Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1293-1327, June.
    3. Ennis, Huberto M. & Keister, Todd, 2010. "Banking panics and policy responses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 404-419, May.
    4. Engineer, Merwan H. & Schure, Paul & Gillis, Mark, 2013. "A positive analysis of deposit insurance provision: Regulatory competition among European Union countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 530-544.
    5. Nancy Silva, 2008. "Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard and the Risk of Runs," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 474, Central Bank of Chile.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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