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The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area

Author

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  • Paloviita, Maritta
  • Virén, Matti

Abstract

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output,and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for an analysis of the dynamic interrelationship between these variables. This model is estimated on aggregate euro area data, pooled euro area country data and individual country data for the period 1979–2003. The empirical results give strong support for the idea that inflation expectations are the key ingredient of the inflationary process for the whole euro area and for most individual countries as well. Inflation expectations also have a significant negative impact on output. As for the determination of inflation expectations, it turns out that they are relatively persistent, almost as persistent as output. Even so, and especially in the medium term, inflation expectations adapt to developments in both output and (actual) inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2005, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2005_006
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212004/1/bof-rdp2005-006.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
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    8. repec:zbw:bofism:2005_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Paloviita, Maritta, 2005. "The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2005_032.
    10. Padula, Mario & Backé, Peter, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States," Working Paper Series 222, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paloviita, Maritta, 2007. "Estimating a small DSGE model under rational and measured expectations: some comparisons," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2007, Bank of Finland.
    2. Paloviita, Maritta, 2005. "Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2005, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; expectations; monetary policy; Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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