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The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area

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Author Info

  • Maritta Paloviita

    (Bank of Finland)

  • Matti Virén

    (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for an analysis of the dynamic interrelationship between these variables. This model is estimated on aggregate euro area data, pooled euro area country data and individual country data for the period 1979–2003. The empirical results give strong support for the idea that inflation expectations are the key ingredient of the inflationary process for the whole euro area and for most individual countries as well. Inflation expectations also have a significant negative impact on output. As for the determination of inflation expectations, it turns out that they are relatively persistent, almost as persistent as output. Even so, and especially in the medium term, inflation expectations adapt to developments in both output and (actual) inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0508031.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 31 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0508031

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 37. published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2005
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: inflation; expectations; monetary policy; Phillips curve;

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References

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  1. Levin, Andrew T. & Natalucci, Fabio M. & Piger, Jeremy M., 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 0383, European Central Bank.
  2. Adam, Klaus & Padula, Mario, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States," Working Paper Series 0222, European Central Bank.
  3. Paloviita , Maritta & Mayes , David, 2004. "The use of real time information in Phillips curve relationships for the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 16/2004, Bank of Finland.
  4. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  5. Tillmann, Peter, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Leo Bonato & Robert St. Clair & Rainer Winkelmann, 1999. "Survey expectations of monetary conditions in New Zealand: determinants and implications for the transmission of policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/6, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  7. Forsells, Magnus & Kenny, Geoff, 2002. "The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0163, European Central Bank.
  8. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
  9. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  10. Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil & Song, Frank, 1995. "Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 99-119, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Aleksejs Melihovs & Anna Zasova, 2007. "Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Latvia," Working Papers 2007/03, Latvijas Banka.
  2. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 55-87, March.
  3. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Analyzing the relationships between survey forecasts for different variables and countries," Discussion Papers 76, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  4. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2009. "Changes in behaviour under EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 751-759, July.
  5. Paloviita, Maritta, 2007. "Estimating a small DSGE model under rational and measured expectations: some comparisons," Research Discussion Papers 14/2007, Bank of Finland.
  6. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "The Role of Inflation Expectations in the New EU Member States: Consumer Survey Based Results," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 298-317, Oktober.
  7. Matti Viren, 2009. "Does the Value-Added Tax Shift to Consumption Prices?," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 123-142, July.
  8. Tomás Slacík, 2008. "(How) Will the Euro Affect Inflation in the Czech Republic? A contribution to the current debate," FIW Working Paper series 018, FIW.

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