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The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Maritta Paloviita

    (Bank of Finland)

  • Matti Virén

    (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for an analysis of the dynamic interrelationship between these variables. This model is estimated on aggregate euro area data, pooled euro area country data and individual country data for the period 1979–2003. The empirical results give strong support for the idea that inflation expectations are the key ingredient of the inflationary process for the whole euro area and for most individual countries as well. Inflation expectations also have a significant negative impact on output. As for the determination of inflation expectations, it turns out that they are relatively persistent, almost as persistent as output. Even so, and especially in the medium term, inflation expectations adapt to developments in both output and (actual) inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Maritta Paloviita & Matti Virén, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Macroeconomics 0508031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0508031
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 37. published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2005
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0508/0508031.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomás Slacík, 2008. "(How) Will the Euro Affect Inflation in the Czech Republic? A contribution to the current debate," FIW Working Paper series 018, FIW.
    2. Demertzis Maria & Viegi Nicola, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: A Framework for Communication," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, December.
    3. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 55-87, March.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Maritta Paloviita, 2008. "Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2259-2270.
    6. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2009. "Changes in behaviour under EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 751-759, July.
    8. Paloviita, Maritta, 2007. "Estimating a small DSGE model under rational and measured expectations : some comparisons," Research Discussion Papers 14/2007, Bank of Finland.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Paloviita, Maritta, 2005. "Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2005, Bank of Finland.
    11. Matti Virén, 2009. "Does the value-added tax shift to consumption prices?," Working Papers 250, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    12. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    13. Diego Moccero & Shingo Watanabe & Boris Cournède, 2011. "What Drives Inflation in the Major OECD Economies?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 854, OECD Publishing.
    14. Paloviita, Maritta, 2007. "Estimating a small DSGE model under rational and measured expectations: some comparisons," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2007, Bank of Finland.
    15. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "The Role of Inflation Expectations in the New EU Member States: Consumer Survey Based Results," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 298-317, Oktober.
    16. Reyna Vergara González & Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva, 2014. "Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-32, November.
    17. Maritta Paloviita, 2008. "Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2259-2270.
    18. Matti Viren, 2009. "Does the Value-Added Tax Shift to Consumption Prices?," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 123-142, July.
    19. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Analyzing the relationships between survey forecasts for different variables and countries," Discussion Papers 76, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    20. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2009. "The role of inflation expectations in the EMU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(16), pages 1671-1675.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; expectations; monetary policy; Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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