IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofitp/bdp2019_022.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Herding behaviour in P2P lending markets

Author

Listed:
  • Caglayan, Mustafa
  • Talavera, Oleksandr
  • Zhang, Wei

Abstract

We explore individual lender behaviour on Renrendai.com, a leading Chinese peer-to-peer (P2P) crowdlending platform. Using a sample of roughly 5 million investor-loan-hour observations and applying a high-dimension fixed effect estimator, we establish evidence of herding behaviour: the investors in our sample tend to prefer assets that had attracted strong interest in previous periods. The herding behaviour relates to both the experience of the investor and the length of time of each investment session. The results show that herding happens mostly in the first or final hour of long sessions. Herding behaviour is further confirmed by estimates at the listing-hour data.

Suggested Citation

  • Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Herding behaviour in P2P lending markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2019_022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212930/1/bofit-dp2019-022.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maxime Merli & Tristan Roger, 2013. "What drives the herding behavior of individual investors?," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 34(3), pages 67-104.
    2. Dana Hollie & Philip B. Shane & Qiuhong Zhao & Steven Cahan, 2017. "The role of financial analysts in stock market efficiency with respect to annual earnings and its cash and accrual components," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(1), pages 199-237, March.
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    4. Antonio Gargano & Alberto G Rossi, 2018. "Does It Pay to Pay Attention?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4595-4649.
    5. Tom Y. Chang & David H. Solomon & Mark M. Westerfield, 2016. "Looking for Someone to Blame: Delegation, Cognitive Dissonance, and the Disposition Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 267-302, February.
    6. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    7. Richard W. Sias, 2004. "Institutional Herding," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 165-206.
    8. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    9. Qi Chen & Wei Jiang, 2006. "Analysts' Weighting of Private and Public Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 319-355.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    11. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Woojin Kim, 2010. "Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 901-937, February.
    12. Herzenstein, Michal & Dholakia, Utpal M. & Andrews, Rick L., 2011. "Strategic Herding Behavior in Peer-to-Peer Loan Auctions," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 27-36.
    13. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
    14. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    15. Boyson, Nicole M., 2010. "Implicit incentives and reputational herding by hedge fund managers," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-299, June.
    16. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14772 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Caglayan, Mustafa & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Xiong, Xiong, 2020. "Asset mispricing in peer-to-peer loan secondary markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    19. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1247-1292, August.
    20. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003. "Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66, March.
    21. Freedman, Seth & Jin, Ginger Zhe, 2017. "The information value of online social networks: Lessons from peer-to-peer lending," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 185-222.
    22. Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Post, Thomas, 2014. "Self-attribution bias in consumer financial decision-making: How investment returns affect individuals’ belief in skill," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-28.
    23. Bruno Biais & Martin Weber, 2009. "Hindsight Bias, Risk Perception, and Investment Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 1018-1029, June.
    24. Ajay Agrawal & Christian Catalini & Avi Goldfarb, 2014. "Some Simple Economics of Crowdfunding," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-97.
    25. Juanjuan Zhang & Peng Liu, 2012. "Rational Herding in Microloan Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 892-912, May.
    26. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    27. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    28. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
    30. Spyros Spyrou, 2013. "Herding in financial markets: a review of the literature," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(2), pages 175-194, November.
    31. Adair Morse, 2015. "Peer-to-Peer Crowdfunding: Information and the Potential for Disruption in Consumer Lending," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 463-482, December.
    32. Ge Gao & Mustafa Caglayan & Yuelei Li & Oleksandr Talavera, 2021. "Expert imitation in P2P markets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(5), pages 470-485, September.
    33. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
    34. Javid Iqbal, 2019. "Managerial Self-Attribution Bias and Banks’ Future Performance: Evidence from Emerging Economies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-32, April.
    35. John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December.
    36. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, February.
    37. Adair Morse, 2015. "Peer-to-Peer Crowdfunding: Information and the Potential for Disruption in Consumer Lending," NBER Working Papers 20899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jianwen & Zhang, Bo & Jiang, Mingming & Hu, Jinyan, 2023. "Homophilous intensity in the online lending market: Bidding behavior and economic effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Arif Perdana & Pearpilai Jutasompakorn & Sunghun Chung, 2023. "Shaping crowdlending investors’ trust: Technological, social, and economic exchange perspectives," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 33(1), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Said Kaawach & Oskar Kowalewski & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "Automatic vs Manual Investing: Role of Past Performance," Discussion Papers 23-04, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    4. Li, Jianwen, 2023. "MSMEs meet FinTech: Chance or challenge?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "Herding behaviour in P2P lending markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 27-41.
    3. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    4. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Cai, Fang & Han, Song & Li, Dan & Li, Yi, 2019. "Institutional herding and its price impact: Evidence from the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 139-167.
    6. Phil Holmes & Vasileios Kallinterakis & M P Leite Ferreira, 2013. "Herding in a Concentrated Market: a Question of Intent," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(3), pages 497-520, June.
    7. Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
    8. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    9. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    10. Deng, Xin & Hung, Shengmin & Qiao, Zheng, 2018. "Mutual fund herding and stock price crashes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 166-184.
    11. Choi, Nicole & Skiba, Hilla, 2015. "Institutional herding in international markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 246-259.
    12. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2021. "Heterogeneous beliefs with herding behaviors and asset pricing in two goods world," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    13. Levis, Mario & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gulnur & Vasileva, Kristina, 2023. "Herding in foreign direct investment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    14. Ge, Yao & Hung, Shengmin & Huang, Wei & Qiao, Zheng & Deng, Xin, 2023. "Mutual fund herding and audit pricing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Oi-Ping Chong & A.N. Bany-Ariffin & Annuar Md Nassir & Junaina Muhammad, 2019. "An Empirical Study of Herding Behaviour in China’s A-Share and B-Share Markets: Evidence of Bidirectional Herding Activities," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 37-57.
    16. Goodfellow, Christiane & Bohl, Martin T. & Gebka, Bartosz, 2009. "Together we invest? Individual and institutional investors' trading behaviour in Poland," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 212-221, September.
    17. I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," Working Papers 17-15, Utrecht School of Economics.
    18. Lee, Kyuseok, 2017. "Herd behavior of the overall market: Evidence based on the cross-sectional comovement of returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 266-284.
    19. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2016. "Bond market investor herding: Evidence from the European financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 367-375.
    20. Nerissa C. Brown & Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers, 2014. "Analyst Recommendations, Mutual Fund Herding, and Overreaction in Stock Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 1-20, January.
    21. Marinovic, Iván & Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter, 2013. "Forecasters’ Objectives and Strategies," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 690-720, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2019_022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.