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Analysts' Weighting of Private and Public Information

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  • Qi Chen
  • Wei Jiang

Abstract

Using both a linear regression method and a probability-based method, we find that on average, analysts place larger than efficient weights on (i.e., they overweight) their private information when they forecast corporate earnings. We also find that analysts overweight more when issuing forecasts more favorable than the consensus, and overweight less, and may even underweight, private information when issuing forecasts less favorable than the consensus. Further, the deviation from efficient weighting increases when the benefits from doing so are high or when the costs of doing so are low. These results suggest that analysts' incentives play a larger role in misweighting than their behavioral biases. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 19 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 319-355

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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:19:y:2006:i:1:p:319-355

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Cited by:
  1. Bernhardt, Dan & Campello, Murillo & Kutsoati, Edward, 2006. "Who herds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 657-675, June.
  2. Peter Thompson, 2008. "Desperate Housewives? Communication Difficulties and the Dynamics of Marital (un)Happiness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1640-1669, October.
  3. Friesen, Geoffrey & Weller, Paul A., 2006. "Quantifying cognitive biases in analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 333-365, November.
  4. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Rahman, Abdul H., 2009. "Degrees-of-freedom problem and implied cost of equity capital," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 171-178, September.
  5. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
  6. Beshears, John & Milkman, Katherine L., 2011. "Do sell-side stock analysts exhibit escalation of commitment?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 304-317, March.
  7. So, Eric C., 2013. "A new approach to predicting analyst forecast errors: Do investors overweight analyst forecasts?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 615-640.
  8. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos, 2013. "Can rational stubbornness explain forecast biases?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 141-151.
  9. Klepper, Steven & Thompson, Peter, 2010. "Disagreements and intra-industry spinoffs," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 526-538, September.
  10. Martinez, Jose Vicente, 2007. "Information Misweighting and Stock Recommendations," SIFR Research Report Series 59, Institute for Financial Research.
  11. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  12. Peter Thompson & Jing Chen, 2011. "Disagreements, employee spinoffs and the choice of technology," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(3), pages 455-474, July.
  13. Marcel Naujoks & Kevin Aretz & Alexander Kerl & Andreas Walter, 2009. "Do German security analysts herd?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 3-29, March.
  14. Van Campenhout, Geert & Verhestraeten, Jan-Francies, 2010. "Herding Behavior among Financial Analysts: a literature review," Working Papers 2010/39, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
  15. Chen, Shaw K. & Lin, Bing-Xuan & Wang, Yaping & Wu, Liansheng, 2010. "The frequency and magnitude of earnings management: Time-series and multi-threshold comparisons," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 671-685, October.
  16. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
  17. Martinez, Jose Vicente, 2011. "Information misweighting and the cross-section of stock recommendations," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 515-539, November.

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