IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofitp/bdp2019_020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interest rate spillovers from the United States: expectations, term premia and macro-financial vulnerabilities

Author

Listed:
  • Mehrotra, Aaron
  • Moessner, Richhild
  • Shu, Chang

Abstract

We analyse how movements in the components of sovereign bond yields in the United States affect long-term rates in 10 advanced and 21 emerging economies. The paper documents significant global spillovers from both the expectations and term premia components of long-term rates in the United States. We find that spillovers to domestic long-term rates in emerging economies from the US expectations components tend to be more sizeable than those from the US term premia. Finally, spillovers from US term premia are larger when an emerging economy displays greater macro-financial vulnerabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehrotra, Aaron & Moessner, Richhild & Shu, Chang, 2019. "Interest rate spillovers from the United States: expectations, term premia and macro-financial vulnerabilities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2019_020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212928/1/bofit-dp2019-020.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albagli, Elias & Ceballos, Luis & Claro, Sebastian & Romero, Damian, 2019. "Channels of US monetary policy spillovers to international bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 447-473.
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    3. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    4. Amstad, Marlene & Remolona, Eli & Shek, Jimmy, 2016. "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-48.
    5. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld, 2021. "Trilemmas and Tradeoffs: Living with Financial Globalization," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 2, pages 16-84, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Dubravko Mihaljek, 2008. "The financial stability implications of increased capital flows for emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows, volume 44, pages 11-44, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Boris Hofmann & Elod Takáts, 2015. "International monetary spillovers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    9. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    10. Ahmed, Shaghil & Coulibaly, Brahima & Zlate, Andrei, 2017. "International financial spillovers to emerging market economies: How important are economic fundamentals?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 133-152.
    11. Prachi Mishra & Papa N’Diaye & Lam Nguyen, 2018. "Effects of Fed Announcements on Emerging Markets: What Determines Financial Market Reactions?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 732-762, December.
    12. Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf & Fan Dora Xia, 2023. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1535-1568, September.
    13. Kose,Ayhan & Lakatos,Csilla & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Stocker,Marc, 2017. "The global role of the U.S. economy: linkages, policies and spillovers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7962, The World Bank.
    14. Benjamin H Cohen & Peter Hördahl & Dora Xia, 2018. "Term premia: models and some stylised facts," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    15. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    16. Philip Turner, 2014. "The global long-term interest rate, financial risks and policy choices in EMEs," BIS Working Papers 441, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Steven B. Kamin & Canlin Li & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez, 2018. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy : Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing," International Finance Discussion Papers 1234, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2014. "Inflation Risk Premia in the Euro Area and the United States," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 1-47, September.
    19. Carlos Caceres & Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Ishak Demir & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2016/195, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mehrotra, Aaron & Moessner, Richhild & Shu, Chang, 2019. "Interest rate spillovers from the United States: expectations, term premia and macro-financial vulnerabilities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Beniak, Patrycja, 2019. "The emerging market reaction to Fed tightening," MPRA Paper 96545, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Oct 2019.
    3. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Eterovic, Dalibor & Sweet, Cassandra & Eterovic, Nicolas, 2022. "Asymmetric spillovers in emerging market monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 650-662.
    7. Stéphanie Pamies & Nicolas Carnot & Anda Pătărău, 2021. "Do Fundamentals Explain Differences between Euro Area Sovereign Interest Rates?," European Economy - Discussion Papers 141, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Aaron Mehrotra & Jochen Schanz, 2020. "Financial market development and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 1-18, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Steven B. Kamin & Canlin Li & Marius Rodriguez, 2023. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 111-158, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mehrotra, Aaron & Moessner, Richhild & Shu, Chang, 2019. "Interest rate spillovers from the United States: expectations, term premia and macro-financial vulnerabilities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf & Fan Dora Xia, 2023. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1535-1568, September.
    4. Nihar Shah, 2022. "Doubly heterogeneous monetary spillovers," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 126-150, August.
    5. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
    6. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    7. Gadanecz, Blaise & Miyajima, Ken & Shu, Chang, 2018. "Emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields: The role of exchange rate risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 371-401.
    8. Jasper Hoek & Steven B. Kamin & Emre Yoldas, 2020. "When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1269, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2022. "Financial spillovers, spillbacks, and the scope for international macroprudential policy coordination," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 79-127, February.
    10. Hoek, Jasper & Kamin, Steve & Yoldas, Emre, 2022. "Are higher U.S. interest rates always bad news for emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Zekeriya Yildirim & Mehmet Ivrendi, 2021. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing, spreads, and international financial markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, December.
    12. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    13. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    14. Filardo, Andrew & Genberg, Hans & Hofmann, Boris, 2016. "Monetary analysis and the global financial cycle: An Asian central bank perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-16.
    15. Anaya, Pablo & Hachula, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2017. "Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 275-295.
    16. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy R., 2023. "Risk, monetary policy and asset prices in a global world," Working Paper Series 2879, European Central Bank.
    17. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian T. Lundblad, 2020. "Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-On / Risk-Off and Emerging Market Tail Risk," Research Working Paper RWP 20-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    18. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    19. Hélène Rey, 2016. "International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 6-35, May.
    20. Giovanni Ricco & Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki S. Hong, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Papers 814, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2019_020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.