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When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets

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Abstract

Rises in U.S. interest rates are often thought to generate adverse spillovers to emerging market economies (EMEs). We show that what appears to be bad news for EMEs might actually be good news, or at least not-so-bad news, depending on the source of the rise in U.S. interest rates. We present evidence that higher U.S. interest rates stemming from stronger U.S. growth generate only modest spillovers, while those stemming from a more hawkish Fed policy stance or inflationary pressures can lead to significant tightening of EME financial conditions. Our identification of the sources of U.S. rate changes is based on high-frequency moves in U.S. Treasury yields and stock prices around FOMC announcements and U.S. employment report releases. We interpret positive comovements of stocks and interest rates around these events as growth shocks and negative comovements as monetary shocks, and estimate the effect of these shocks on emerging market asset prices. For economies with greater macroeconomic vulnerabilities, the difference between the impact of monetary and growth shocks is magnified. In fact, for EMEs with very low levels of vulnerability, a growth-driven rise in U.S. interest rates may even ease financial conditions in some markets.

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  • Jasper Hoek & Steven B. Kamin & Emre Yoldas, 2020. "When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1269, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1269
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2020.1269
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    Cited by:

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    2. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Price Stability, and Equilibrium Bond Yields: Success and Consequences : a speech at the High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, And Volatility, co-sponsored by the Bank fo," Speech 1102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Richard H. Clarida, 2021. "Perspectives on Global Monetary Policy Coordination, Cooperation, and Correlation: a speech at the "Macroeconomic Policy and Global Economic Recovery" 2021 Asia Economic Policy Conference, s," Speech 93388, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Spillovers; Emerging markets; Growth shock; monetary shocks; Financial conditions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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