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A Valuation Study of Stock-Market Seasonality and Firm Size

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  • Zhiwu Chen
  • Jan Jindra

Abstract

Existing studies on market seasonality and the size effect are largely based on realized returns. This paper investigates seasonal variations and size-related differences in cross-stock valuation distribution. We use three stock valuation measures, two derived from structural models and one from book/market ratio. With each measure, we find that the average level is the highest in midsummer and the lowest in mid-December. Furthermore, the valuation dispersion (or, kurtosis)across stocks increases towards the year end and reverses direction after the turn of the year, suggesting increased movements in both the under-and-overvaluation directions. Among size groups, small-cap stocks exhibit the sharpest decline in valuation from June to December and the highest rise from December to January. For most months, small-cap stocks have the lowest valuation among all size groups. In a typical mo

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm199.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm199

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Web page: http://icf.som.yale.edu/
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  1. Grinblatt, Mark & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 1999. "The Cross Section of Expected Returns and its Relation to Past Returns: New Evidence," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt1k67p66s, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  2. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
  3. Ritter, Jay R, 1988. " The Buying and Selling Behavior of Individual Investors at the Turn of the Year," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 701-17, July.
  4. Dyl, Edward A, 1977. "Capital Gains Taxation and Year-End Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 165-75, March.
  5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  6. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
  7. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
  8. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. " Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-55, March.
  9. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-31, May.
  10. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 1996. "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 5604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Charles M. C. Lee & James Myers & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 1999. "What is the Intrinsic Value of the Dow?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1693-1741, October.
  12. Zhiwu Chen & Ming Dong, 2001. "Stock Valuation and Investment Strategies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm212, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2001.
  13. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Zhiwu Chen & Gurdip Bakshi, 2001. "Stock Valuation in Dynamic Economics," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm198, Yale School of Management.
  2. Ming Dong & David Hirshleifer, 2005. "A Generalized Earnings-Based Stock Valuation Model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 1-31, 09.

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