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The Cross Section of Expected Returns and its Relation to Past Returns: New Evidence

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  • MARK GRINBLATT
  • TOBIAS J. MOSKOWITZ

Abstract

This paper parsimoniously characterizes how past returns affect the cross-section of expected returns. Using Fama-MacBeth regressions, it shows that the momentum and reversals associated with past returns over various horizons are strongly affected by a turn-of-the-year seasonal that differs for winter and losers, depending on both the tax environment and the month of the year, and differs by exchange listing. The analysis also uncovers a consistent winners effect – high fractions of positive return months tend to increase expected returns. Out-of-sample evidence suggests that the documented relation between past returns and expected returns cannot entirely be due to data snooping biases.
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Suggested Citation

  • Mark Grinblatt & Tobias J. Moskowitz, "undated". "The Cross Section of Expected Returns and its Relation to Past Returns: New Evidence," CRSP working papers 503, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:chispw:503
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    File URL: http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/finance/papers/ER_PR.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Jose Gutierrez, 2016. "Reversal of 3‐day losers and continuation of 3‐day winners on the NASDAQ," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 68-73, September.
    2. Michael Kaestner, 2006. "Investors' Misreaction to Unexpected Earnings: Evidence of Simultaneous Overreaction and Underreaction," Post-Print halshs-03037432, HAL.
    3. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    4. D'Mello, Ranjan & Ferris, Stephen P. & Hwang, Chuan Yang, 2003. "The tax-loss selling hypothesis, market liquidity, and price pressure around the turn-of-the-year," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 73-98, January.
    5. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2016. "Momentum and downside risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 104-118.
    6. Zhiwu Chen & Jan Jindra, 2001. "A Valuation Study of Stock-Market Seasonality and Firm Size," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm199, Yale School of Management.
    7. Zhiwu Chen & Jan Jindra, 2001. "A Valuation Study of Stock-Market Seasonality and Firm Size," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm199, Yale School of Management.
    8. Gutierrez, Jose, 2016. "Reversal of 3-day losers and continuation of 3-day winners on the NASDAQ," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 68-73.
    9. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    10. Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time‐varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, April.

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