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Only in the Heat of the Moment? A Study of the Relation between Weather and Mortality in Germany

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  • M. Karlsson ;
  • M. Schmitt ;

Abstract

In this study we analyze the relationship between heat events and mortality in Germany. The main research questions are: Does heat lead to rising mortality and if yes, are the e ects persistent or compensated for in the near future? Furthermore, we consider di erences between heat e ects in urban and rural environments. Cause speci c daily mortality and meteorological data were connected on the county level. We allow for static as well as dynamic relations between extreme temperatures and mortality and compare di erent panel data estimation approaches. We nd that heat has a signi cant positive impact on mortality. The strongest e ects can be observed on the same day and the rst week afterwards. The mortality increase ranges between 0.003 and 3.5 per 100,000 inhabitants depending on the particular death cause. We do not nd a signi cant negative, and thus compensating, impact in the medium term, which is contrary to the Harvesting Hypothesis. Using a value of statistical life approach we estimate that each additional hot day in Germany induces a total loss of e1,861M. Moreover, the environment plays an important role. The heat induced increase in mortality is signi cantly higher in urban areas.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York in its series Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers with number 11/27.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:yor:hectdg:11/27

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Postal: HEDG/HERC, Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
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Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/res/herc/research/hedg/
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Related research

Keywords: Climate Change; Harvesting Hypothesis; Heat Waves; Mortality; Urban Heat; Island effect;

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  1. Krupnick, Alan & Cropper, Maureen & Alberini, Anna & Heintzelman, Martin & Simon, Nathalie & O'Brien, Bernie & Goeree, Ron, 2000. "Age, Health, and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Residents," Discussion Papers dp-00-37, Resources For the Future.
  2. Alberini, Anna & Cropper, Maureen & Krupnick, Alan & Simon, N.B.Nathalie B., 2004. "Does the value of a statistical life vary with age and health status? Evidence from the US and Canada," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 769-792, July.
  3. Olivier Deschenes & Enrico Moretti, 2007. "Extreme Weather Events, Mortality and Migration," NBER Working Papers 13227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Hübler, Michael & Klepper, Gernot & Peterson, Sonja, 2008. "Costs of climate change: The effects of rising temperatures on health and productivity in Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 381-393, December.
  5. Vaneckova, Pavla & Beggs, Paul J. & Jacobson, Carol R., 2010. "Spatial analysis of heat-related mortality among the elderly between 1993 and 2004 in Sydney, Australia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 293-304, January.
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