Unravelling the influence of smoking initiation and cessation on premature mortality using a common latent factor model
AbstractDuration models for lifespan and smoking, that focus on the socio-economic gradient in smoking durations and length of life, are estimated controlling for individual-specific unobservable heterogeneity by means of a latent factor model. The latent factor influences the risk of starting and quitting smoking as well as the hazard of mortality. Frailty could in°uence smoking behaviour through two mechanisms: the effect of life expectancy on initiation of smok- ing and the impact of adverse health events on quitting. Our findings suggest that individual-specific preference for experimentation, which leads those peo- ple who start smoking soonest to quit early, is a potential source of spurious correlation between smoking durations. They also suggest that frailty acts according to both mechanisms, driving selection into early smoking initiation as well as selection into early smoking cessation. Overall, determinants of smoking durations and mortality hazard are largely unaffected by unobserv- able heterogeneity. However, the latent factor model strengthens the results of the univariate models suggesting that increasing the quitting rate and reduc- ing the duration of smoking would decrease premature mortality. Whereas, prompting people to delay starting would shorten the length of time spent smoking.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York in its series Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers with number 07/06.
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: HEDG/HERC, Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
Phone: (0)1904 323776
Fax: (0)1904 323759
Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/res/herc/research/hedg/
More information through EDIRC
smoking; mortality; duration analysis; unobservable heterogeneity; latent factors;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- van Ours, Jan C., 2004. "A pint a day raises a man's pay; but smoking blows that gain away," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 863-886, September.
- Michelle M. Mello & Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton, 2002. "Do Medicare HMOs still reduce health services use after controlling for selection bias?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 323-340.
- Partha Deb & Pravin K. Trivedi, 2006. "Specification and simulated likelihood estimation of a non-normal treatment-outcome model with selection: Application to health care utilization," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(2), pages 307-331, 07.
- Valerie Lechene & Jerome Adda, 2004.
"On the Identification of the Effect of Smoking on Mortality,"
Economics Series Working Papers
184, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Valerie Lechene & Jerome Adda, 2004. "On The Identification Of The Effect Of Smoking On Mortality," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 30, Royal Economic Society.
- Jerome Adda & Valérie Lechene, 2004. "On the identification of the effect of smoking on mortality," CeMMAP working papers CWP13/04, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Valerie Lechene & JÃƒÂ©rÃƒÂ³me Adda, 2001. "Smoking and Endogenous Mortality: Does Heterogeneity in Life Expectancy Explain Differences in Smoking Behavior?," Economics Series Working Papers 77, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Lee Lillard & Constantijn Panis, 1996. "Marital status and mortality: The role of health," Demography, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 313-327, August.
- Farrell, Phillip & Fuchs, Victor R. & Fuchs, Victor R., 1982.
"Schooling and health : The cigarette connection,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 217-230, December.
- Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, 2001.
"The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: Duration analysis of British data,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A,
Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(3), pages 517-547.
- Martin Forster & Andrew Jones, 2000. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: duration analysis of British data," Working Papers 176chedp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
- Silvia Balia & Andrew M Jones, 2005.
"Mortality, lifestyle and socio-economic status,"
Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers
05/02, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
- Heckman, James J. & Navarro, Salvador, 2007.
"Dynamic discrete choice and dynamic treatment effects,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 341-396, February.
- Heckman, James J. & Navarro, Salvador, 2005. "Dynamic Discrete Choice and Dynamic Treatment Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 1790, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro, 2005. "Dynamic Discrete Choice and Dynamic Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kajal Lahiri & Jae G. Song, 2000. "The effect of smoking on health using a sequential self-selection model," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(6), pages 491-511.
- repec:ner:ucllon:http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/14691/ is not listed on IDEAS
- Kenneth Train, 2003.
"Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation,"
Online economics textbooks,
SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2.
- Mroz, Thomas A., 1999. "Discrete factor approximations in simultaneous equation models: Estimating the impact of a dummy endogenous variable on a continuous outcome," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 233-274, October.
- Gabriel A. Picone & Frank A. Sloan & Shin-Yi Chou & Donald H. Taylor, 2003. "Does Higher Hospital Cost Imply Higher Quality of Care?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 51-62, February.
- Ours, J.C. van, 2004. "A pint a day raises a man's pay, but smoking blows that gain away," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-140957, Tilburg University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Rawlings).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.