On the Identification of the Effect of Smoking on Mortality
AbstractThis paper considers the identification of the effect of tobacco on mortality. If individuals select into smoking according to some unobserved health characteristic, then estimates of the effect of tobacco on health that do not account for this are biased. We show that using information on mortality, morbidity and smoking, it is possible to control for this selection effect and obtain consistent estimates of the effect of smoking on mortality. We implement our method on Swedish data. We show that there is selection into smoking, and considerable dispersion around the average effect, so that health policies that aim at decreasing smoking prevalence and quantities smoked might have less effect in terms of average number of years of life gained than previously estimated. We also empirically show that selection into smoking has increased over the last fifty years with the availability of information on the dangers of smoking, so that future studies comparing smokers and nonsmokers will spuriously reveal a worsening effect of tobacco on health if they fail to control for selection.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 184.
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Health; Duration; Smoking; Selection; Mortality; Life Expectancy; Causality;
Other versions of this item:
- Valerie Lechene & Jerome Adda, 2004. "On The Identification Of The Effect Of Smoking On Mortality," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 30, Royal Economic Society.
- Jerome Adda & Valérie Lechene, 2004. "On the identification of the effect of smoking on mortality," CeMMAP working papers CWP13/04, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Adda, J & Lechene, V, 2004. "On the Identification of the Effect of Smoking on Mortality," Open Access publications from University College London http://discovery.ucl.ac.u, University College London.
- I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frank J. Chaloupka & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Matthew C. Farrelly & Lloyd D. Johnston & Patrick M. O'Malley, 1999. "Do Higher Cigarette Prices Encourage Youth to Use Marijuana?," NBER Working Papers 6939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-55, March-Apr.
- Antonanzas, Fernando, et al, 2000. " Smoking Risks in Spain: Part I--Perception of Risks to the Smoker," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 21(2-3), pages 161-86, November.
- Dee, Thomas S., 1999. "The complementarity of teen smoking and drinking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 769-793, December.
- Gary S. Becker & Michael Grossman & Kevin M. Murphy, 1994.
"An Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Addiction,"
NBER Working Papers
3322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary S. Becker & Michael Grossman & Kevin M. Murphy, 1990. "An Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Addiction," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 61, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Sandra L. Decker & Amy Ellen Schwartz, 2000. "Cigarettes and Alcohol: Substitutes or Complements?," NBER Working Papers 7535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenkel, Donald S, 1991.
"Health Behavior, Health Knowledge, and Schooling,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 287-305, April.
- Frank J. Chaloupka, 1991.
"Rational Addictive Behavior and Cigarette Smoking,"
NBER Working Papers
3268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evans, William N. & Ringel, Jeanne S., 1999.
"Can higher cigarette taxes improve birth outcomes?,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 135-154, April.
- William N. Evans & Jeanne S. Ringel, 1997. "Can Higher Cigarette Taxes Improve Birth Outcomes?," NBER Working Papers 5998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Viscusi, W Kip, 1990. "Do Smokers Underestimate Risks?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1253-69, December.
- Smith, George Davey & Shipley, Martin J., 1991. "Confounding of occupation and smoking: Its magnitude and consequences," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 1297-1300, January.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy, 1986.
"A Theory of Rational Addiction,"
University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State
41, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Alan Mathios, 2002. "Putting Out the Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce the Onset of Youth Smoking?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 144-169, February.
- Rogers, Richard G. & Powell-Griner, Eve, 1991. "Life expectancies of cigarette smokers and nonsmokers in the United States," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1151-1159, January.
- Sterling, T. & Weinkam, J., 1990. "The confounding of occupation and smoking and its consequences," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 457-467, January.
- Grignon, Michel, 2009. "An empirical investigation of heterogeneity in time preferences and smoking behaviors," The Journal of Socio-Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 739-751, October.
- Silvia Balia & Andrew M Jones, 2005.
"Mortality, lifestyle and socio-economic status,"
Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers
05/02, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
- Pedro Rosa Dias, 2010. "Modelling opportunity in health under partial observability of circumstances," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 252-264.
- Sunder, Marco, 2005. "Toward generation XL: Anthropometrics of longevity in late 20th-century United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 271-295, July.
- Stanciole, Anderson, 2007. "Health Insurance and Life Style Choices: Identifying the Ex Ante Moral Hazard," IRISS Working Paper Series 2007-10, IRISS at CEPS/INSTEAD.
- Silvia Balia & Andrew M. Jones, 2007. "Unravelling the influence of smoking initiation and cessation on premature mortality using a common latent factor model," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 07/06, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Caroline Wise).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.