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Estimation of weights for the Monetary Conditions Index in Poland

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  • Andrzej Toroj

    ()
    (Warsaw School of Economics, National Bank of Poland)

Abstract

In this paper, we follow the econometric approach to assess relative importance of real interest rate and real exchange rate for the monetary conditions in Poland, quantified as weights for Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). We consider both single- and multiple-equation specifications proposed in the literature with an application to Poland. Although MCI is nowadays broadly considered a rather obsolete indicator in monetary policy conduct, we argue that the econometric framework used for this purpose could be a good departure point when modelling monetary adjustments in a monetary union, provided correct dynamic specification of the models.

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File URL: http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/struktura/IE/struktura/ZES/Documents/Working_Papers/aewp06-08.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 27.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 23 Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:27

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Keywords: Monetary Conditions Index; MCI-ratio; IS curve; Phillips curve; VAR.;

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References

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  1. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Clausen, Volker & Hayo, Bernd, 2002. "Asymmetric monetary policy effects in EMU," ZEI Working Papers B 04-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  3. Grande, G., 1997. "Properties of the Monetary Conditions Index," Papers 324, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  4. Eika, K.H. & Ericsson, N.R. & Nymoen, R., 1996. "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," Memorandum 32/1996, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  5. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
  6. Siklos, Pierre L, 2000. "Is the MCI a Useful Signal of Monetary Policy Conditions? An Empirical Investigation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 413-37, November.
  7. Jan Gottschalk, 2001. "Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area: Useful Indicators of Aggregate Demand Conditions?," Kiel Working Papers 1037, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Benati, Luca, 2008. "Investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes," Working Paper Series 0851, European Central Bank.
  9. David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
  10. Mayes, David G. & Viren , Matti, 2002. "Financial Conditions Indexes," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 55(4), pages 521-550.
  11. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hofmann, Boris, 2004. "Macroeconomic implications of low inflation in the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-23, March.
  12. Charles Freedman, 1995. "The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy [speech]," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Autumn), pages 53-59.
  13. Gregory, Allan W & Veall, Michael R, 1985. "Formulating Wald Tests of Nonlinear Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1465-68, November.
  14. Andreas Fischer & Adrian Orr, 1994. "The Determinants and Properties of Monetary Conditions: Direct Survey Evidence from New Zealand," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 150, OECD Publishing.
  15. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
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Cited by:
  1. Van Vliet, Olaf & Been, Jim & Caminada, Koen & Goudswaard, Kees, 2011. "Pension reform and income inequality among the elderly in 15 European countries," MPRA Paper 32940, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 86, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.

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