We analyze the disinflationary experience between 1979-1993 for two traditionally inflationary countries of the European Monetary System: France and Italy. For each country, a vector autoregressive model is estimated. Shocks in the model combine domestic and foreign sources. The latter capture the world oil price shocks as well as nominal and real shocks originating in Germany. Under investigation is the hypothesis that shocks originating in Germany have a spillover disinflationary effect in France and Italy. The empirical evidence provides support to the validity of this hypothesis. Furthermore, German shocks account for an important share of the total price variance in France and Italy. These results indicate that the interaction between countries of the European Monetary System has contributed to the success of the disinflationary experiences of the eighties. The evidence sheds, therefore, some light on potential benefits that may be further realized as countries of the European Monetary System move towards their objective of achieving a single currency under a unified monetary system.
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number
9605001.
Length: 26 pages Date of creation: 30 May 1996 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9605001
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993.
"International Business Cycles,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-59, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Ahmed, S. & Ickes, B. & Wang, P. & Yoo, S., 1989.
"International Business Cycles,"
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7-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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