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Does Stationarity Characterize Real GDP Movements? Results from Non-Linear Unit Root Tests

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Author Info
Dimitris Christopoulos (Panteion University)

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Abstract

Using non-linear unit root tests this paper investigates non- stationarity of real GDP per capita for seven OECD countries over the period 1900-2000. Non-linear unit root tests are more powerful than traditional ADF statistics in rejecting the null unit root hypothesis. To this end we adopt a first order Fourier approximation that may capture many features of non-linear adjustment. Empirical results show that, contrary to what the linear ADF statistics suggest, stationarity characterizes six out of the seven countries. This finding stands at variance with other recent studies which conclude that movements in real GDP per capita can be characterized as a non-stationary process.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0406002.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: 02 Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0406002

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 8
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Unit root tests non-linear model real GDP

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models

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  1. Ludlow, Jorge & Enders, Walter, 2000. "Estimating non-linear ARMA models using Fourier coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-347. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 1996. "Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 134-62, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Shin, Dong Wan & Lee, Oesook, 2001. "Tests for Asymmetry in Possibly Nonstationary Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 233-44, April.
  5. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-11, July.
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  6. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-59, October.
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