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Does Stationarity Characterize Real GDP Movements? Results from Non-Linear Unit Root Tests

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  • Dimitris Christopoulos

    (Panteion University)

Abstract

Using non-linear unit root tests this paper investigates non- stationarity of real GDP per capita for seven OECD countries over the period 1900-2000. Non-linear unit root tests are more powerful than traditional ADF statistics in rejecting the null unit root hypothesis. To this end we adopt a first order Fourier approximation that may capture many features of non-linear adjustment. Empirical results show that, contrary to what the linear ADF statistics suggest, stationarity characterizes six out of the seven countries. This finding stands at variance with other recent studies which conclude that movements in real GDP per capita can be characterized as a non-stationary process.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0406002.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: 02 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0406002

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 8
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: Unit root tests; non-linear model; real GDP;

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  1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 1996. "Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 134-62, January.
  2. n/a, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," NIESR Discussion Papers 164, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  3. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
  4. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  5. Walter Wasserfallen, 1986. "Non-stationarities in Macro-economic Time Series--Further Evidence an d Implications," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 498-510, August.
  6. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  7. Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-59, October.
  9. Ludlow, Jorge & Enders, Walter, 2000. "Estimating non-linear ARMA models using Fourier coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-347.
  10. Shin, Dong Wan & Lee, Oesook, 2001. "Tests for Asymmetry in Possibly Nonstationary Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 233-44, April.
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