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Measuring and Analyzing Returns on Aggregate Residential Housing

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Author Info

  • Fuad Hasanov

    (Oakland University)

  • Douglas Dacy

    (University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

This paper computes an aggregate real after-tax rate of return on residential real estate in the United States. We account for net rental income, capital gain, and subsidies due to tax provisions for homeowners in constructing a total return measure. We also compute separate returns to owners and rentiers (that is, households who rent to others). Both quarterly and annual data over 1952-2000 period are used in the analysis. We compare our measure of return with that in the literature and analyze how housing compares to other assets in the household portfolio. Our approach provides a more comprehensive measure of return than that found in the literature. We confirm that residential housing provides a high average return and low volatility, has low correlation with other assets such as stocks and bonds, and exhibits high positive correlation with inflation. The efficient frontier analysis shows that the residential housing providing diversification should be an important part of the household portfolio. Our results also indicate that housing may be as good an investment as stocks (S&P 500).

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/fin/papers/0510/0510005.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0510005.

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Date of creation: 11 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0510005

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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: housing return; measurement; efficient frontier; household portfolio;

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References

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  1. Roger G. Ibbotson & Laurence B. Siegel, 1984. "Real Estate Returns: A Comparison with Other Investments," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 219-242.
  2. Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991. "The measurement and determinants of single-family house prices," Working Papers 91-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  3. Flavin, Marjorie & Yamashita, Takashi, 1998. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio over the Life Cycle," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt89x293v9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
  5. Fogler, H Russell & Granito, Michael R & Smith, Laurence R, 1985. " A Theoretical Analysis of Real Estate Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 711-19, July.
  6. William N. Goetzmann & Roger G. Ibbotson, 1990. "The Performance Of Real Estate As An Asset Class," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 3(1), pages 65-76.
  7. Michael T. Bond & Michael J. Seiler, 1998. "Real Estate Returns and Inflation: An Added Variable Approach," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(3), pages 327-338.
  8. Blake, David, 1996. "Efficiency, Risk Aversion and Portfolio Insurance: An Analysis of Financial Asset Portfolios Held by Investors in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1175-92, September.
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