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Essays on consumer portfolio choice and credit risk

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  • Ji, Tingting
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    Abstract

    Three essays comprise this dissertation. The first essay uses panel data to show that labor income risk alone cannot explain limited stock market participation. However, transaction costs and household demographics, considered jointly, can determine both the discrete choice of whether to hold stock and the amount held, conditional on whether the household is already investing in the stock market. Transaction costs are proxied by state-level number of brokers per capita. The second essay builds on the first essay. I measure two different covariance terms. One is between self-evaluated house value and uninsurable labor income risk. The other is between housing investment return and stock return. The results show that homeownership has a diversification effect on stock holdings. This effect occurs because adding a house to the household portfolio can significantly decrease the overall risk of the portfolio. The last essay empirically shows that unemployment is significant in determining both consumer bankruptcy filings and delinquency even after controlling for household demographics. Furthermore, I show that unemployment and the debt/wealth ratio also affect the choice of whether to file for bankruptcy under chapter 7 or chapter 13, after controlling for demographics. The paper then points out some of the implications the empirical results have for policy-makers and banking regulators.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3161.

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    Date of creation: 30 Oct 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3161

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    Related research

    Keywords: consumer credit risk; household portfolio choice; delinquency; bankruptcy; mortgage;

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    References

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    1. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
    2. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," NBER Working Papers 8314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January.
    4. Boot, Arnoud W A & Thakor, Anjan V & Udell, Gregory F, 1991. "Secured Lending and Default Risk: Equilibrium Analysis, Policy Implications and Empirical Results," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 458-72, May.
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    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    7. Flavin, Marjorie & Yamashita, Takashi, 1998. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio over the Life Cycle," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt89x293v9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Carol Bertaut & Martha Starr-McCluer, 2000. "Household portfolios in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2004. "Does Local Financial Development Matter?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(3), pages 929-969, August.
    11. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2001. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Wang, Hung-Jen & White, Michelle J, 2000. "An Optimal Personal Bankruptcy Procedure and Proposed Reforms," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 255-86, January.
    13. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 1997. "Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1721-1742, December.
    14. Reint Gropp & John Karl Scholz & Michelle White, 1996. "Personal Bankruptcy and Credit Supply and Demand," NBER Working Papers 5653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. B. Douglas Bernheim & Daniel M. Garrett, 1996. "The Determinants and Consequences of Financial Education in the Workplace: Evidence from a Survey of Households," NBER Working Papers 5667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter, 2005. "Empirical credit cycles and capital buffer formation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3159-3179, December.
    17. Brueckner, Jan K, 1997. "Consumption and Investment Motives and the Portfolio Choices of Homeowners," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 159-80, October.
    18. Jappelli, Tullio, 1990. "Who Is Credit Constrained in the U.S. Economy?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 219-34, February.
    19. Lopez, Jose A. & Saidenberg, Marc R., 2000. "Evaluating credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 151-165, January.
    20. Goetzmann, W.N., 1990. "The Single Family Home In The Investment Portfolio," Papers fb-_90-15, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    21. Igor Livshits & James MacGee & Mich�le Tertilt, 2007. "Consumer Bankruptcy: A Fresh Start," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 402-418, March.
    22. Pierre Mella-Barral & William R M Perraudin, 1993. "Strategic Debt Service," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0039, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
    23. Bester, Helmut, 1985. "Screening vs. Rationing in Credit Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 850-55, September.
    24. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 2000. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 1-26, January.
    25. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2002. "Pro-Cyclicality, Empirical Credit Cycles, and Capital Buffer Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-107/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    26. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1163-1198, 06.
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