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Consumer Credit Delinquency And Bankruptcy Forecasting Using Advanced Econometrc Modeling

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  • Ji, Tingting
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    Abstract

    This research paper empirically shows that unemployment is significant in determining both consumer bankruptcy filings and delinquency even after controlling for household demographics. Furthermore, I show that unemployment and the debt/wealth ratio also affect the choice of whether to file for bankruptcy under chapter 7 or chapter 13, after controlling for demographics. The paper then points out some of the implications the empirical results have for policy-makers and banking regulators.

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    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3187/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3187.

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    Date of creation: 30 Oct 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3187

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    Keywords: consumer credit risk; delinquency; bankruptcy; advanced empirical econometrics; financial economics; consumer finance;

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    19. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
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    23. Goetzmann, W.N., 1990. "The Single Family Home In The Investment Portfolio," Papers fb-_90-15, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    24. Carol Bertaut & Martha Starr-McCluer, 2000. "Household portfolios in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
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