Intelligence, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach
Abstract
Human capital plays an important role in the theory of economic growth, but it has been difficult to measure this abstract concept. We survey the psychological literature on cross-cultural IQ tests, and conclude that modern intelligence tests are well-suited for measuring an important form of a nation’s human capital. Using a new database compiled by Lynn and Vanhanen (2002) along with a Bayesian methodology derived from Sala-i-Martin, Doppelhofer, and Miller (AER, 2004), we show that national average IQ has a robust positive relationship with economic growth. In growth regressions that include only robust control variables, IQ is statistically significant in 99.8% of these 1330 regressions, and the IQ coefficient is always positive. A strong relationship persists even when OECD countries are excluded from the sample. A 1 point increase in a nation’s average IQ is associated with a persistent 0.11% annual increase in GDP per capita.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0507005.Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 11 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0507005
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 48
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://128.118.178.162
Related research
Keywords: Economic Growth; Human Capital; Intelligence; IQ; Education;Other versions of this item:
- Garett Jones & W. Schneider, 2006. "Intelligence, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 71-93, 03.
- O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
- J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
- I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-07-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2005-07-18 (Development)
- NEP-EDU-2005-07-18 (Education)
- NEP-LAB-2005-07-18 (Labour Economics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2003.
"Forecasting in Large Macroeconomic Panels using Bayesian Model Averaging,"
Discussion Papers in Economics
04/16, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2003. "Forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian Model Averaging," Staff Reports 163, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Hoover, Kevin, 2000.
"Truth and Robustness in Cross-Country Growth Regression,"
Working Papers
01-1, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics.
- Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2004. "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 765-798, December.
- Kevin Hoover & Harris Dellas, 2003. "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Working Papers 11, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, . "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Department of Economics 01-01, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001.
"The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Garett Jones, 2006.
"IQ in the Ramsey Model: A Naive Calibration,"
2006 Meeting Papers
213, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Garett Jones, 2006. "IQ in the Ramsey Model: A Naive Calibration," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_063, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Garett Jones, 2005. "IQ in the Ramsey Model: A Naive Calibration," Development and Comp Systems 0507004, EconWPA.
- Bleaney, Michael & Nishiyama, Akira, 2002. " Explaining Growth: A Contest between Models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 43-56, March.
- Samuel Bowles & Herbert Gintis & Melissa Osborne, 2000. "The Determinants of Earnings: Skills, Preferences, and Schooling," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2000-07, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993.
"International Comparisons of Educational Attainment,"
NBER Working Papers
4349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1993. "International comparisons of educational attainment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 363-394, December.
- Leamer, Edward E, 1983.
"Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
- Edward E. Leamer, 1982. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," UCLA Economics Working Papers 239, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004.
"Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric A. Hanushek & Dongwook Kim, 1995. "Schooling, Labor Force Quality, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2009.
"Forecasting US inflation by Bayesian model averaging,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 131-144.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging," International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997.
"I just ran four million regressions,"
Economics Working Papers
201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
- Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Temple, Jonathan, 2000. "Growth Regressions and What the Textbooks Don't Tell You," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 181-205, July.
- Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
- Weede, Erich & Kampf, Sebastian, 2002. "The Impact of Intelligence and Institutional Improvements on Economic Growth," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 361-80.
- Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
- Neal, Derek A & Johnson, William R, 1996.
"The Role of Premarket Factors in Black-White Wage Differences,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 869-95, October.
- Derek A. Neal & William R. Johnson, 1995. "The Role of Pre-Market Factors in Black-White Wage Differences," NBER Working Papers 5124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992.
"A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
- Charles Murray, 2002. "IQ and Income Inequality in a Sample of Sibling Pairs from Advantaged Family Backgrounds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 339-343, May.
- Fabio Milani, 2004.
"Monetary Policy with a Wider Information Set: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach,"
Macroeconomics
0401004, EconWPA.
- Fabio Milani, 2008. "Monetary Policy With A Wider Information Set: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(1), pages 1-30, 02.
- Dennis D. Kimko & Eric A. Hanushek, 2000. "Schooling, Labor-Force Quality, and the Growth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1184-1208, December.
- Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong Wha, 1996. "International Measures of Schooling Years and Schooling Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 218-23, May.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Patricia Prüfer & Gabriele Tondl, 2009.
"The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America: The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions,"
DEGIT Conference Papers
c014_025, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America: The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Discussion Paper 2008-61, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Jörg Baten & Dorothee Crayen & Joachim Voth, 2007. "Poor, hungry and ignorant: Numeracy and the impact of high food prices in industrializing Britain, 1780-1850," Economics Working Papers 1120, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2011.
- Dmitry V. Kovalevsky, 2011. "Structural Dynamic Economic Model SDEM-2," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_043, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Westling, Tatu, 2011. "Male organ and economic growth: does size matter?," MPRA Paper 32302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(16), pages 1-69.
- Kodila-Tedika, Oasis, 2012. "Governance and Intelligence: Empirical Analysis from African Data," MPRA Paper 39937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Strulik, Holger, 2010.
"The History Augmented Solow model,"
Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover
dp-460, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "The history augmented Solow model," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 151, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- Niklas Potrafke, 2011.
"Intelligence and Corruption,"
Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz
2011-36, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Intelligence and corruption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 109-112.
- Isaac Kalonda-Kanyama & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2012.
"Quality of Institutions: Does Intelligence Matter?,"
Working Papers
308, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Isaac Kalonda-Kanyama & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2012. "Quality of Institutions : Does Intelligence Matter?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201206, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2012.
- Galor, Oded & Michalopoulos, Stelios, 2006.
"The Evolution of Entrepreneurial Spirit and the Process of Development,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oded Galor & Stelios Michalopoulos, 2009. "The Evolution of Entrepreneurial Spirit and the Process of Development," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 111, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Ulaşan, Bülent, 2011. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Lim, Jamus Jerome & Adams-Kane, Jonathon, 2008. "Institutions, Education, and Economic Performance," MPRA Paper 11800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Lists
This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:- IQ and Global Inequality in Wikipedia (Czech)
- IQ and Global Inequality in Wikipedia (Swedish)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0507005For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

