Slovenia and the European Union: Macroeconomic Development Scenarios
AbstractConsistent projections are presented for Slovenia's economic development in the form of two scenarios: one assuming accession to the European Union in 2005, and another assuming that no accession takes place before 2010. If accession does not take place, the growth of GDP will fluctuate between 3 and 4 percent, while in the accession scenario it achieves 5-6% in the years before and after accession. In both scenarios some reorientation of trade to former Yugoslav regions is expected, but in case of accession the high share of trade with the EU is maintained. Budgetary policy and agreement with social parters are expected to take care of moderate wage developments, which are even more crucial in case of accession due to the increased competitive pressures. The forecasts assume not only that external conditions will be favorable, or at least not adverse, but that internal structural reforms and economic policy making will fulfill all the ambitious targets that the official national and international documents prescribe.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir00025.
Date of creation: Apr 2000
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: A-2361 Laxenburg
Web page: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Catalog/PUB_ONLINE.html
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2000-05-08 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.