Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Univariate Time Series: An Empirical Investigation of the Austrian Unemployment Rate
AbstractThe modelling of univariate time series is a subject of great importance in a variety of fields, in regional science and economics, and beyond. Time series modelling involves three major stages:model identification, model%0D estimation and diagnostic checking. This current paper focuses its attention on the model identification stage in general and on the issue of testing for non-linear dependence in particular. If the null hypothesis of independence is rejected, then the alternative hypothesis implies the existence of linear or non-linear dependence. The test of this hypothesis is of crucial importance. If the data are linearly dependent, the linear time series models have to be specified (generally within the SARIMA methodology). If the data are non-linearly dependent, then non-linear time series modelling (such as ARCH, GARCH and autoregressive neural network models) must be employed. Several tests have recently been developed for this purpose. In this paper we make a modest attempt to investigate the power of five competing tests (McLeod-Li-test, Hsieh-test, BDS-test, Terävirta''''s neural network test) in a real world application domain of unemployment rate prediction in order to determine what kind of non-linear specification they have good power against, and which not. The results obtained indicate that that all the tests reject the hypothesis of mere linear dependence in our application. But if interest is focused on predicting the conditional mean of the series, the neural network test is most informative for model identification and its use is therefore highly%0D recommended.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa01p233.
Date of creation: Aug 2001
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria
Web page: http://www.ersa.org
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Burgess, Simon M, 1992. "Asymmetric Employment Cycles in Britain: Evidence and an Explanation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 279-90, March.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & Serena Ng, 1998.
"Testing for ARCH in the Presence of a Possibly Misspecified Conditional Mean,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
370, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Ng, Serena, 1999. "Testing for ARCH in the presence of a possibly misspecified conditional mean," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 257-279, December.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1991. " Developments in the Nonlinear Analysis of Economic Series," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(2), pages 263-76.
- Sentana, Enrique, 1995.
"Quadratic ARCH Models,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 639-61, October.
- Barnett, William A. & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hinich, Melvin J. & Jungeilges, Jochen A. & Kaplan, Daniel T. & Jensen, Mark J., 1997.
"A single-blind controlled competition among tests for nonlinearity and chaos,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 157-192.
- William Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan & Mark J. Jensen, 2012. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition Among Tests For Nonlinearity And Chaos," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201219, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
- William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan & Mark J. Jensen, 1996. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition among Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos," Econometrics 9602005, EconWPA, revised 20 Sep 1996.
- Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-68, July.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993.
"Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
- Tom Doan, . "REGWHITENNTEST: RATS procedure to perform White neural network test on regression," Statistical Software Components RTS00183, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "REGRESET: RATS procedure to perform Ramsey RESET test on regression," Statistical Software Components RTS00181, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
- D. A. Peel & A. E. H. Speight, 1998. "The nonlinear time series properties of unemployment rates: some further evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 287-294, February.
- repec:att:wimass:9520 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.