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The Steadiness of Migration Plans and Expected Length of Stay – Based on a Recent Survey of Romanian Migrants in Italy

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  • Michael Landesmann

    ()
    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Isilda Mara

    ()
    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

Abstract The study analyses migration intentions and expected length of stay in the host country, taking account of the propensity to change (or retain) migration plans during the course of the migration experience in the host country. We analyse the particular case of Romanian migrants in Italy, using a survey conducted in 2011 in the context of the TEMPO/NORFACE project. We used different specifications to analyse the exogeneity vs endogeneity of steady/changing migration plans regarding expected length of stay and migration intentions. The survey and the analysis showed that Romanian migrants, both men and women, who arrived in Italy after May 2004 have modified their migration plans, the main determinants being employment and family reasons. Migrants who have maintained similar migration plans to the ones upon arrival are mostly those with a preference for long-term and permanent migration. Gender differences in analysing migration plans matter as diverse patterns emerge for men compared to women. Differently from women, men plan their length of stay based on the employment context, especially on whether the job is adequate to the level of qualification and whether earnings match expectations. For women, on the other hand, family context variables play a significant role. The paper concludes that migration intentions could be a good predictor of migration behaviour if we account for the endogeneity of steadiness/switching of such plans.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series wiiw Working Papers with number 104.

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Length: 41 pages including 11 Tables and 5 Figure
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as wiiw Working Paper
Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:104

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Keywords: migration; temporary/permanent; Romanian migrants; applied econometrics; bivariate ordered probit; migrants in Italy;

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  1. Michael C. Burda & Wolfgang Härdle & Marlene Müller & Axel Werwatz, 1998. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 525-541.
  2. Hendrik P. van Dalen & K�ne Henkens, 2004. "The Rationality behind Immigration Preferences," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-002/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. repec:wop:humbsf:1998-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Hendrik P. van Dalen & K�ne Henkens, 2004. "The Rationality behind Immigration Preferences," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-002/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  5. Christian Dustmann & Josep Mestres, 2009. "Remittances and Temporary Migration," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0909, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  6. Locher, Lilo, 2001. "Testing for the Option Value of Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 405, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Berninghaus, Siegfried & Seifert-Vogt, Hans Gunther, 1993. "The role of the target saving motive in guest worker migration A theoretical study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 181-205.
  8. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim 00-39, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  9. Dustmann, Christian, 2001. "Return Migration, Wage Differentials, and the Optimal Migration Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 264, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Dalen, H.P. van & Henkens, K., 2008. "Emigration Intentions: Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 2008-60, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  11. Constant, Amelie F. & Massey, Douglas S., 2002. "Self-Selection, Earnings, and Out-Migration: A Longitudinal Study of Immigrants to Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 672, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Galor, Oded & Stark, Oded, 1990. "Migrants' Savings, the Probability of Return Migration and Migrants' Performance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 463-67, May.
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