Measuring Disaster Crop Production Losses Using Survey Microdata : Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Every year, disasters account for billions of dollars in crop production losses in low- andmiddle-income countries and particularly threaten the lives and livelihoods of those depending on agriculture. Withclimate change accelerating, this burden will likely increase in the future and accurate, micro-level measurementof crop losses will be important to understand disasters’ implications for livelihoods, prevent humanitarian crises,and build future resilience. Survey data present a large, rich, highly disaggregated information source that istrialed and tested to the specifications of smallholder agriculture common in low- and middle-income countries.However, to tap into this potential, a thorough understanding of and robust methodology for measuringdisaster crop production losses in survey microdata is essential. This paper exploits plot-level panel data foralmost 20,000 plots on 8,000 farms in three Sub-Saharan African countries with information on harvest, input use,and different proxies of losses; household and community-level data; as well data from other sources suchas crop cutting and survey experiments, to provide new insights into the reliability of survey-based crop lossestimates and their attribution to disasters. The paper concludes with concrete recommendations for methodology andsurvey design and identifies key avenues for further research.