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Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries : how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design ?

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  • Delavande, Adeline
  • Gine, Xavier
  • McKenzie, David

Abstract

Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5458.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5458

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Information Security&Privacy; Markets and Market Access; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences; Crops&Crop Management Systems;

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  1. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
  2. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Eliciting Subjective Expectations in Internet Surveys," Working Papers, RAND Corporation Publications Department 589, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  3. Orazio Attanasio & Katja Kaufmann, 2009. "Educational Choices, Subjective Expectations, and Credit Constraints," NBER Working Papers 15087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2004. "The effects of subjective survival on retirement and Social Security claiming," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 761-775.
  5. McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2007. "A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold: Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad?," IZA Discussion Papers 2788, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2010. "Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 219-231.
  8. Delavande, Adeline, 2005. "Pill, Patch or Shot? Subjective Expectations and Birth Control Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Luseno, Winnie K. & McPeak, John G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Little, Peter D. & Gebru, Getachew, 2003. "Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1477-1494, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Maertens, Annemie, 2013. "Social Norms and Aspirations: Age of Marriage and Education in Rural India," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-15.
  2. Chari, A.V. & Maertens, Annemie, 2014. "Gender, productive ability and the perceived returns to education: Evidence from rural India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 253-257.
  3. Sann VATHANA & Sothea OUM & Ponhrith KAN & Colas CHERVIER, 2013. "Impact of Disasters and Role of Social Protection in Natural Disaster Risk Management in Cambodia," Working Papers, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) DP-2013-10, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

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