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Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries : how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design ?

Author

Listed:
  • Delavande, Adeline
  • Gine, Xavier
  • McKenzie, David

Abstract

Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2010. "Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries : how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5458, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5458
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    References listed on IDEAS

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