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Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design?

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  • Adeline Delavande
  • Xavier Giné
  • David McKenzie

Abstract

Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 26 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (04)
Pages: 479-497

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Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:26:y:2011:i:3:p:479-497

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  1. McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2007. "A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold: Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad?," IZA Discussion Papers 2788, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics, EconWPA 9411003, EconWPA.
  3. Michael Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2003. "The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirements and Social Security Claiming," Working Papers, RAND Corporation Publications Department 03-11, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  4. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Pill, Patch, Or Shot? Subjective Expectations And Birth Control Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 999-1042, 08.
  5. Orazio Attanasio & Katja Kaufmann, 2009. "Educational Choices, Subjective Expectations, and Credit Constraints," NBER Working Papers 15087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Luseno, Winnie K. & McPeak, John G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Little, Peter D. & Gebru, Getachew, 2003. "Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1477-1494, September.
  7. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
  8. Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2010. "Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 219-231.
  9. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Eliciting Subjective Expectations in Internet Surveys," Working Papers, RAND Corporation Publications Department 589, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
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Cited by:
  1. Sann VATHANA & Sothea OUM & Ponhrith KAN & Colas CHERVIER, 2013. "Impact of Disasters and Role of Social Protection in Natural Disaster Risk Management in Cambodia," Working Papers, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) DP-2013-10, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  2. Chari, A.V. & Maertens, Annemie, 2014. "Gender, productive ability and the perceived returns to education: Evidence from rural India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 253-257.
  3. Maertens, Annemie, 2013. "Social Norms and Aspirations: Age of Marriage and Education in Rural India," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-15.

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