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The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirement and Social Security Claiming

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Author Info
Michael D. Hurd
James P. Smith
Julie M. Zissimopoulos

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Abstract

According to the life-cycle model, mortality risk will influence both retirement and the desire to annuitize wealth. We estimate the effect of subjective survival probabilities on retirement and on the claiming of Social Security benefits because delayed claiming is equivalent to the purchase of additional Social Security annuities. We find that those with very low subjective probabilities of survival retire earlier and claim earlier than those with higher subjective probabilities, but the effects are not large. The great majority of workers claim as soon as they are eligible.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9140.

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Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9140

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Spivak, Avia, 1981. "The Family as an Incomplete Annuities Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 372-91, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Brown, Jeffrey R., 2001. "Private pensions, mortality risk, and the decision to annuitize," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 29-62, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Hurd & Daniel McFadden & Angela Merrill, 1999. "Predictors of Mortality Among the Elderly," NBER Working Papers 7440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Coile, Courtney & Diamond, Peter & Gruber, Jonathan & Jousten, Alain, 2002. "Delays in claiming social security benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 357-385, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1997. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," NBER Working Papers 6193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Jeffrey R. Brown & Mark J. Warshawsky, 2001. "Longevity-Insured Retirement Distributions from Pension Plans: Market and Regulatory Issues," NBER Working Papers 8064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Steven A. Sass & Wei Sun & Anthony Webb, 2008. "When Should Married Men Claim Social Security Benefits?," Issues in Brief ib2008-8-4, Center for Retirement Research, revised Mar 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. John Laitner, 2003. "Labor Supply Responses to Social Security," Working Papers wp050, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  3. Todd Elder, 2007. "Subjective Survival Probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study: Systematic Biases and Predictive Validity," Working Papers wp159, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  4. Friedrich Breyer & Stefan Hupfeld, 2007. "On the Fairness of Early Retirement Provisions," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mark E. Votruba, 2003. "Social Security and Retirees' Decision to Work," Working Papers 853, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
  6. Donna Dosman & Wiktor Adamowicz, 2006. "Combining Stated and Revealed Preference Data to Construct an Empirical Examination of Intrahousehold Bargaining," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 15-34, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Owen O'Donnell & Federica Teppa & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2008. "Can subjective survival expectations explain retirement behaviour?," DNB Working Papers 188, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2006. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," PGDA Working Papers 1706, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Adeline Delavande & Michael Perry & Robert Willis, 2006. "Probabilistic Thinking and Early Social Security Claiming," Working Papers wp129, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jeff Dominitz & Angela Hung & Arthur vanSoest, 2007. "Future Beneficiary Expectations of the Returns to Delayed Social Security Benefit Claiming and Choice Behavior," Working Papers wp164, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  11. Thierry Debrand & Nicolas Sirven, 2009. "What are the Motivations of Pathways to Retirement in Europe: Individual, Familial, Professional Situation or Social Protection Systems?," Working Papers DT28, IRDES institut for research and information in health economics, revised Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kristin J. Kleinjans & Jinkook Lee, 2006. "The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?," Economics Working Papers 2006-05, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  13. Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2006. "The Social Security Earnings Test Removal: Money Saved or Money Spent by the Trust Fund?," Working Papers 892, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
  14. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Frederic Vermeulen, 2006. "A Collective Labor Supply Model: Identification and Estimation in the Presence of Externalities by Means of Panel Data," Working Papers 406, RAND Corporation Publications Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. Delavande, Adeline, 2005. "Pill, Patch or Shot? Subjective Expectations and Birth Control Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 4856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Thierry Debrand & Nicolas Sirven, 2009. "Quelles sont les motivations des départs à la retraite en Europe : situation personnelle, familiale, professionnelle, ou rôle de la protection sociale ?," Working Papers DT26, IRDES institut for research and information in health economics, revised Jun 2009. [Downloadable!]
  17. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875, June. [Downloadable!]
  18. Michael Hurd & Julie Zissimopoulos, 2003. "Saving for Retirement: Wage Growth and Unexpected Events," Working Papers wp045, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  19. Mathias Kifmann, 2008. "The Design of Pension Pay Out Options when the Health Status during Retirement is Uncertain," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  20. Didier Blanchet & Thierry Debrand, 2008. "The sooner, the better? Analyzing preferences for early retirement in European countries," Working Papers DT13, IRDES institut for research and information in health economics, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
  21. Adeline Delavande & Robert Willis, 2007. "Managing the Risk of Life," Working Papers wp167, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
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