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Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030

Author

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  • Jafino,Bramka Arga
  • Walsh,Brian James
  • Rozenberg,Julie
  • Hallegatte,Stephane

Abstract

Thousands of scenarios are used to provide updated estimates for the impacts of climate changeon extreme poverty in 2030. The range of the number of people falling into poverty due to climate change is between32 million and 132 million in most scenarios. These results are commensurate with available estimates for the globalpoverty increase due to COVID-19. Socioeconomic drivers play a major role: optimistic baseline scenarios (rapid andinclusive growth with universal access to basic services in 2030) halve poverty impacts compared with the pessimisticbaselines. Health impacts (malaria, diarrhea, and stunting) and the effect of food prices are responsible for most ofthe impact. The effect of food prices is the most important factor in Sub-Saharan Africa, while health effects, naturaldisasters, and food prices are all important in South Asia. These results suggest that accelerated action to boostresilience is urgent, and the COVID-19 recovery packages offer opportunities to do so.

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  • Jafino,Bramka Arga & Walsh,Brian James & Rozenberg,Julie & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2020. "Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9417, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9417
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    2. Hoang, Anh Tuan & Sandro Nižetić, & Olcer, Aykut I. & Ong, Hwai Chyuan & Chen, Wei-Hsin & Chong, Cheng Tung & Thomas, Sabu & Bandh, Suhaib A. & Nguyen, Xuan Phuong, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the global energy system and the shift progress to renewable energy: Opportunities, challenges, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Sofia Castelo & Miguel Amado & Filipa Ferreira, 2023. "Challenges and Opportunities in the Use of Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Khanh Duong & Eoin Flaherty, 2023. "Does growth reduce poverty? The mediating role of carbon emissions and income inequality," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3309-3334, October.
    5. Delbridge, Victoria & Harman, Oliver & Oliveira Cunha, Juliana & Venables, Anthony J., 2022. "Sustainable urbanisation in developing countries: cities as places to innovate, trade, and work," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118027, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Adil Salhi, 2023. "Leveraging emotional connections for climate change action: the power of solidarity and a common cause," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 1-5, April.

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    Keywords

    Inequality; Science of Climate Change; Climate Change and Health; Climate Change and Environment; Climate Change Impacts; Social Aspects of Climate Change; Health Care Services Industry;
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