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The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and the potential from rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development

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  • Rozenberg,Julie
  • Hallegatte,Stephane

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty and is labeled ?prosperity;? the other scenario is pessimistic and labeled ?poverty.? Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts?in agriculture, health, and natural disasters?are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the poverty scenario).

Suggested Citation

  • Rozenberg,Julie & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2015. "The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and the potential from rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7483, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7483
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    Cited by:

    1. Jafino,Bramka Arga & Walsh,Brian James & Rozenberg,Julie & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2020. "Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9417, The World Bank.
    2. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2018. "Globalization and Environment: An Asian Experience," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-27, October.

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    Keywords

    Regional Economic Development; Science of Climate Change; Rural Poverty Reduction; Climate Change Economics;
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