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From flying Geese to leading Dragons : new opportunities and strategies for structural transformation in developing countries

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  • Lin, Justin Yifu

Abstract

Economic development is a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading in which any country, regardless of its level of development, can succeed if it develops industries that are consistent with its comparative advantage, determined by its endowment structure. The secret winning formula for developing countries is to exploit the latecomer advantage by building up industries that are growing dynamically in more advanced fast growing countries that have endowment structures similar to theirs. By following carefully selected lead countries, latecomers can emulate the leader-follower, flying-geese pattern that has served well successfully catching-up economies since the 18th century. The emergence of large middle-income countries such as China, India, and Brazil as new growth poles in the world, and their dynamic growth and climbing of the industrial ladder, offer an unprecedented opportunity to all developing economies with income levels currently below theirs --including those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Having itself been a"follower goose,"China is on the verge of graduating from low-skilled manufacturing jobs and becoming a"leading dragon."That will free up nearly 100 million labor-intensive manufacturing jobs, enough to more than quadruple manufacturing employment in low-income countries. A similar trend is emerging in other middle-income growth poles. The lower-income countries that can formulate and implement a viable strategy to capture this new industrialization opportunity will set forth on a dynamic path of structural change that can lead to poverty reduction and prosperity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5702.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5702

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Emerging Markets; Achieving Shared Growth; Labor Policies; Inequality;

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Cited by:
  1. Iizuka, Michiko & Gebreeyesus, Mulu, 2012. "A systemic perspective in understanding the successful emergence of non-traditional exports: two cases from Africa and Latin America," MERIT Working Papers 052, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  2. Sumru Altug & Baris Tan & Gozde Gencer, 2011. "Cyclical Dynamics of Industrial Production and Employment: Markov Chain-based Estimates and Tests," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum 1101, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  3. Lawrence, Robert Z., 2013. "Associations of Southeast Asian Nations, People's Republic of China, and India Growth and the Rest of the World: The Role of Trade," Working Paper Series, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government rwp13-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C. & Paqueo, Vicente B. & Lanzona, Leonardo Jr. A. & Dulay, Dean Gerard C., 2014. "Labor Policy Analysis for Jobs Expansion and Development," Discussion Papers, Philippine Institute for Development Studies DP 2014-34, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  5. Aldaba, Rafaelita M., 2014. "The Philippine Manufacturing Industry Roadmap: Agenda for New Industrial Policy, High Productivity Jobs, and Inclusive Growth," Discussion Papers, Philippine Institute for Development Studies DP 2014-32, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  6. Addison, Tony & Singhal, Saurabh & Tarp, Finn, 2013. "Aid to Africa: The changing context," Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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