Forecasting migrant remittances during the global financial crisis
AbstractThe financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5512.
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Remittances; Debt Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Agriculture&Farming Systems; Emerging Markets;
Other versions of this item:
- Sanket Mohapatra & Dilip Ratha, 2010. "Forecasting migrant remittances during the global financial crisis," Migration Letters, MTransnational Press London, London, UK, vol. 7(2), pages 203-213, October.
- NEP-ALL-2011-01-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2011-01-16 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MIG-2011-01-16 (Economics of Human Migration)
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