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Forecasting migrant remittances during the global financial crisis

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  • Mohapatra, Sanket
  • Ratha, Dilip

Abstract

The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5512.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5512

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Keywords: Remittances; Debt Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Agriculture&Farming Systems; Emerging Markets;

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References

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  1. Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2006. "Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 2160, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. John Gibson & David McKenzie & Halahingano Rohorua, 2006. "How Cost Elastic are Remittances? Estimates from Tongan Migrants in New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics, University of Waikato, Department of Economics 06/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  3. Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2009. "Migration and Remittance Trends 2009 : A Better-Than-Expected Outcome So Far, But Significant Risks Ahead," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10958, The World Bank.
  4. Freund, Caroline & Spatafora, Nikola, 2008. "Remittances, transaction costs, and informality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 356-366, June.
  5. Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2010. "Outlook for Remittance Flows 2010-11 : Remittance Flows to Developing Countries Remained Resilient in 2009, Expected to Recover During 2010-11," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10931, The World Bank.
  6. Raju Jan Singh & Kyung-woo Lee & Markus Haacker, 2009. "Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 09/216, International Monetary Fund.
  7. David J. McKenzie & Nicole Hildebrandt, 2005. "The Effects of Migration on Child Health in Mexico," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  8. Dean Yang & HwaJung Choi, 2005. "Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines," Working Papers, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan 535, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  9. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesco Paterno, 2006. "Do workers' remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library 19872, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Ralph Chami & Adolfo Barajas & Anjali Garg & Connel Fullenkamp, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 10/24, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Faini, Riccardo, 2006. "Remittances and the Brain Drain," IZA Discussion Papers 2155, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Dilip Ratha, 2006. "Leveraging remittances for development," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 173-185.
  13. Nicholas P. Glytsos, 1997. "Remitting Behaviour of "Temporary" and "Permanent" Migrants: The Case of Greeks in Germany and Australia," LABOUR, CEIS, CEIS, vol. 11(3), pages 409-435, November.
  14. Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2009. "Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011 : Remittances Expected to Fall by 7-10 Percent in 2009," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10975, The World Bank.
  15. El-Sakka, M. I. T. & McNabb, Robert, 1999. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Emigrant Remittances," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1493-1502, August.
  16. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2009. "New Evidence on the Role of Remittances on Health Care Expenditures by Mexican Households," IZA Discussion Papers 4617, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Sanket Mohapatra & George Joseph & Dilip Ratha, 2012. "Remittances and natural disasters: ex-post response and contribution to ex-ante preparedness," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 365-387, June.
  18. Rolando Avendaño & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto Parra, 2009. "Are Workers' Remittances Relevant for Credit Rating Agencies?," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 282, OECD Publishing.
  19. Carlos Vargas-Silva & Peng Huang, 2006. "Macroeconomic determinantsof workers' remittances: Hostversus home country's economic conditions," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 81-99.
  20. Merkle, Lucie & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1992. "Savings, remittances, and return migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 77-81, January.
  21. Parsons, Christopher R. & Skeldon, Ronald & Walmsley, Terrie L. & Winters, L. Alan, 2007. "Quantifying international migration : a database of bilateral migrant stocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4165, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zizi GOSCHIN & Monica ROMAN, 2012. "Determinants of the remitting behaviour of Romanian emigrants in an economic crisis context," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 87-103, December.
  2. Bharati Basu & James T. Bang, 2013. "Insurance and remittances: New evidence from Latin American immigrants to the US," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 10(3), pages 383-398, September.
  3. Ibrahim Sirkeci & Jeffrey H. Cohen & Dilip Ratha, 2012. "Migration and Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13092, August.

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