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A control function approach to estimating dynamic probit models with endogenous regressors, with an application to the study of poverty persistence in China

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  • Giles, John
  • Murtazashvili, Irina

Abstract

This paper proposes a parametric approach to estimating a dynamic binary response panel data model that allows for endogenous contemporaneous regressors. This approach is of particular value for settings in which one wants to estimate the effects of an endogenous treatment on a binary outcome. The model is next used to examine the impact of rural-urban migration on the likelihood that households in rural China fall below the poverty line. In this application, it is shown that migration is important for reducing the likelihood that poor households remain in poverty and that non-poor households fall into poverty. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that failure to control for unobserved heterogeneity would lead the researcher to underestimate the impact of migrant labor markets on reducing the probability of falling into poverty.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5400.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5400

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Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction; Population Policies; Achieving Shared Growth; Debt Markets; Regional Economic Development;

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References

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  1. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
  2. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
  3. de Brauw, Alan & Giles, John, 2008. "Migrant opportunity and the educational attainment of youth in rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4526, The World Bank.
  4. Jinyong Hahn & Guido Kuersteiner, 2002. "Asymptotically Unbiased Inference for a Dynamic Panel Model with Fixed Effects when Both "n" and "T" Are Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1639-1657, July.
  5. John Giles, 2000. "Is Life More Risky in the Open? Household Risk-Coping and the Opening of China's Labor Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 314, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. Francesco Devicienti & Ambra Poggi, 2007. "Poverty and social exclusion: two sides of the same coin or dynamically interrelated processes?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 62, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  7. de Brauw, Alan & Giles, John T., 2012. "Migrant Labor Markets and the Welfare of Rural Households in the Developing World: Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 6765, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Biewen, Martin, 2004. "Measuring State Dependence in Individual Poverty Status: Are There Feedback Effects to Employment Decisions and Household Composition?," IZA Discussion Papers 1138, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Ming Liu & Sumner La Croix, 2014. "The Impact of Stronger Property Rights in Pharmaceuticals on Innovation in Developed and Developing Countries," Working Papers 201407, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  2. Alem, Yonas, 2014. "Poverty Persistence and Intra-Household Heterogeneity in Occupations: Some Evidence from Ethiopia," Discussion Papers dp-14-05-efd, Resources For the Future.
  3. Ming Liu & Sumner La Croix, 2014. "A Cross-Country Index of Intellectual Property Rights in Pharmaceutical Innovations," Working Papers 201408, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  4. Alem, Yonas, 2013. "Poverty Persistence and Intra-Household Heterogeneity in Occupations: Evidence from Urban Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 580, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.

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