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Is the developing world catching up ? global convergence and national rising dispersion

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Author Info
Bussolo, Maurizio
De Hoyos, Rafael E.
Medvedev, Denis

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Abstract

The present study uses the GIDD, a CGE-microsimulation model for Global Income Distribution Dynamics, to understand the ex-ante dynamics of global income distribution. Three main robust results emerge. First, under a set of realistic assumptions, there will be a reduction in global income inequality by 2030. This potential reduction can be fully accounted for by the projected convergence in average incomes across countries, with poor and populous countries growing faster than the rest of the world. Second, this convergence process will be accompanied by a widening of income distribution in two-thirds of the developing countries; the main cause being increasing skill premia. Third, a trend that may counter-balance the potential anti-globalization sentiment is the emergence of a global middle class: a group of consumers who demand access to, and have the means to purchase, international goods and services. The results show that the share of these consumers in the global population is likely to more than double in the next 20 years. These ex-ante trends in global income distribution suggest that the mid-1990s could be seen as a turning point after which global inequality began showing a negative tendency.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4733.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4733

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Related research
Keywords: Inequality; Poverty Impact Evaluation; Economic Theory&Research; Achieving Shared Growth;

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  1. Francois Bourguignon & Victoria Levin & David Rosenblatt, 2004. "Declining International Inequality and Economic Divergence: Reviewing the Evidence Through Different Lenses," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 4Q, pages 13-26. [Downloadable!]
  2. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "The World Distribution of Income (estimated from Individual Country Distributions)," NBER Working Papers 8933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "Global poverty and inequality : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4623, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. François Bourguignon & Christian Morrisson, 2001. "Inequality among World Citizens : 1820-1992," DELTA Working Papers 2001-18, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  5. Anna Maria Mayda & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Why Are Some People (and Countries) More Protectionist Than Others?," NBER Working Papers 8461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ravallion, Martin, 2003. "Inequality convergence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 351-356, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Milanovic, Branko & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 2002. "Decomposing World Income Distribution: Does the World Have a Middle Class?," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 155-78, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ravallion, Martin, 2004. "Competing concepts of inequality in the globalization debate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3243, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2006. "The World Distribution of Income: Falling Poverty and ... Convergence, Period," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(2), pages 351-397, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Branko milanovic, 2003. "True world income distribution, 1988 and 1993: First calculation based on household surveys alo," HEW 0305002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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