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Meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil: Can Microeconomic Simulations Help?

Author

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  • Francisco H. G. Ferreira
  • Phillippe G. Leite

Abstract

The authors investigate whether micro-simulation techniques can shed light on the types of policies that should be adopted by countries wishing to meet their Millennium Development Goals. They compare two families of micro-simulations. The first family of micro-simulations decomposes required poverty changes into a change in the mean and a reduction in inequality. Although it highlights the importance of inequality reduction, it appears to be too general to be of much use for policymaking. The second family of micro-simulations is based on a richer model of behavior in the labor markets.It points to the importance of combining different policy options, such as educational expansion and targeted conditional redistribution schemes, to ensure that the poorest people in society are successfully reached. But the absence of market equilibria in these statistical models, as well as the strong stability assumptions which are implicit in their use, argue for extreme caution in their interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Phillippe G. Leite, 2003. "Meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil: Can Microeconomic Simulations Help?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 235-280, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000425:008681
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    Cited by:

    1. Bourguignon, François & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2013. "Income Distribution in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1383-1437, Elsevier.
    2. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis, 2008. "Is the developing world catching up ? global convergence and national rising dispersion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4733, The World Bank.
    3. World Bank Group, 2015. "Rwanda Poverty Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 22970, The World Bank Group.
    4. Ranaldi, Marco, 2021. "Global Distributions of Capital and Labor Incomes: Capitalization of the Global Middle Class," SocArXiv 3g59r, Center for Open Science.
    5. Leonardo Gasparini & Javier Alejo & Francisco Haimovich & Sergio Olivieri & Leopoldo Tornarolli, 2010. "Poverty among older people in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 176-207.
    6. Florencia Lopez Boo, 2006. "Changes in poverty and the stability of income distribution in Argentina: evidence from the 1990s via decompositions," Working Papers 33, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    7. Leonardo Gasparini & Federico Gutiérrez & Leopoldo Tornarolli, 2007. "Growth And Income Poverty In Latin America And The Caribbean: Evidence From Household Surveys," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(2), pages 209-245, June.
    8. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    9. Bussolo, Maurizio & Maliszewska, Maryla & Murard, Elie, 2014. "The long-awaited rise of the middle class in Latin America is finally happening," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6912, The World Bank.
    10. Martin Ravallion, 2013. "How Long Will It Take to Lift One Billion People Out of Poverty?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 139-158, August.
    11. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael & Medvedev, Denis, 2008. "Global Income Distribution and Poverty in the Absence of Agricultural Distortions," Conference papers 331764, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Felipe Barrera-Osorio & Marcela Meléndez, 2010. "Agricultural Subsidies, Trade Barriers and Poverty: Household Microsimulation for Colombia," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas & Lyn Squire & T. N. Srinivasan (ed.), Global Exchange and Poverty, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Paul Segal, 2022. "Inequality Interactions: The Dynamics of Multidimensional Inequalities," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 53(5), pages 941-961, September.
    14. Ravallion, Martin, 2012. "Benchmarking global poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6205, The World Bank.
    15. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2007. "Global growth and distribution : are China and India reshaping the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4392, The World Bank.
    16. World Bank, 2009. "Argentina : Income Support Policies toward the Bicentennial," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13531, December.
    17. repec:wbk:wbpubs:13530 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Tsigas, Marinos & Arce, Hugh M., 2008. "A general equilibrium analysis of effects of undocumented workers in the United States," Conference papers 331768, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    microsimulation techniques; Millenium Development Goals; Brazil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation

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