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Simulating the poverty impact of macroeconomic shocks and policies

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  • Essama-Nssah, B.
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    Abstract

    Developing countries face a host of macroeconomic challenges in the design and implementation of development strategies and policies. The importance of the underlying poverty and distributional issues creates a need for relevant and reliable ways of tracking the social impact of shocks and policies. This paper describes and demonstrates the use of a stylized framework for simulating the poverty implications of the Dutch disease, a change in the terms of trade and budgetary policy. The basic approach is to embed a Lorenz model of the size distribution of economic welfare in a general equilibrium model of an open economy. It is observed that, while aggregate welfare and poverty effects may be negligible, the structural and distributional impacts tend to be significant. The latter drive the political economy of policymaking and point to the need for an analytical framework that accounts for both the structural richness of the economy and the heterogeneity of the stakeholders

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3788.

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    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3788

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Achieving Shared Growth; Inequality; Rural Poverty Reduction; Consumption;

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    1. Datt, Gaurav, 1998. "Computational tools for poverty measurement and analysis," FCND discussion papers 50, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Ravallion, Martin & Lokshin, Michael, 2004. "Gainers and losers from trade reform in Morocco," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3368, The World Bank.
    3. Essama-Nssah, 2004. "Building and running general equilibrium models in EViews," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3197, The World Bank.
    4. Sherman Robinson & Hans Lofgren, 2005. "Macro Models and Poverty Analysis: Theoretical Tensions and Empirical Practice," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 267-283, 05.
    5. Richard N. Cooper, 1992. "Economic Stabilization and Debt in Developing Countries," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031876, December.
    6. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
    7. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
    8. Decaluwé, Bernard & Dumont, Jean-Christophe & Savard, Luc, 2000. "Measuring Poverty and Inequality in a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Cahiers de recherche 9926, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
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    Cited by:
    1. Delfin S. Go & John Page, 2008. "Africa at a Turning Point? : Growth, Aid, and External Shocks," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6421, October.
    2. Shahidur R. Khandker & Gayatri B. Koolwal & Hussain A. Samad, 2010. "Handbook on Impact Evaluation : Quantitative Methods and Practices," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2693, October.

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