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Simulating the poverty impact of macroeconomic shocks and policies

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Author Info
Essama-Nssah, B.
Abstract

Developing countries face a host of macroeconomic challenges in the design and implementation of development strategies and policies. The importance of the underlying poverty and distributional issues creates a need for relevant and reliable ways of tracking the social impact of shocks and policies. This paper describes and demonstrates the use of a stylized framework for simulating the poverty implications of the Dutch disease, a change in the terms of trade and budgetary policy. The basic approach is to embed a Lorenz model of the size distribution of economic welfare in a general equilibrium model of an open economy. It is observed that, while aggregate welfare and poverty effects may be negligible, the structural and distributional impacts tend to be significant. The latter drive the political economy of policymaking and point to the need for an analytical framework that accounts for both the structural richness of the economy and the heterogeneity of the stakeholders

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3788.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3788

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Achieving Shared Growth; Inequality; Rural Poverty Reduction; Consumption;

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  1. Sherman Robinson & Hans Lofgren, 2005. "Macro Models and Poverty Analysis: Theoretical Tensions and Empirical Practice," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 267-283, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ravallion, Martin & Lokshin, Michael, 2004. "Gainers and losers from trade reform in Morocco," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3368, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Decaluwé, Bernard & Dumont, Jean-Christophe & Savard, Luc, 2000. "Measuring Poverty and Inequality in a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Cahiers de recherche 9926, Université Laval - Département d'économique. [Downloadable!]
  5. Essama-Nssah, 2004. "Building and running general equilibrium models in EViews," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3197, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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