Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Bolivia: Impact of shocks and poverty policy on household welfare

Contents:

Author Info

  • Barja, Gover
  • Monterrey, Javier
  • Villarroel, Sergio

Abstract

This paper evaluates the short term impacts on poverty of pro-poor expenditure and total social expenditure during the 1999-2002 period of Bolivian economic recession. Observed characteristics of recession are simulated by the combined effects of negative terms of trade shock, reduction in foreign saving flows and low output growth. Evaluation is performed by simulating the impacts of shocks and social expenditures in an environment of low growth: i) on macro aggregates of consumption, income, saving and prices (based on a simple static 1-2-3 model built with 1998 data as the base year), ii) on household income and consumption levels by quintiles and areas, and iii) on consumption based poverty indicators by areas. The following were main results from experiments: The terms of trade shock had greater negative impact on household income then reduction in foreign saving flows. In contrast, reduction in foreign saving flows had greater negative impact on household consumption then the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the head count ratio has been greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the poverty gap and poverty intensity has concentrated in rural areas, being greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Under macroeconomic stability (no shocks and 1998 macro conditions) social expenditure policy for poverty reduction would have had an important positive impact on household income and consumption levels (more so in income then consumption), in reducing the number of poor (more in urban then rural areas), and in reducing poverty gap and poverty intensity (more so in rural areas). However, social expenditure policy does not promote the production of tradables. The combined positive effects from observed social expenditure policy and effort in an environment of low output growth, did not compensate the combined negative impacts from the experienced terms of trade shock and reduction in foreign saving flows. These conclusions show that under macroeconomic disequilibrium poverty reduction efforts become policies of poverty containment or safety net programs. Poverty reduction is a long term objective that requires long term commitment for an environment on macroeconomic stability.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22937/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22937.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22937

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: External Shocks; Poverty; CGEM 1-2-3; HEGY;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Sen, Amartya K, 1976. "Poverty: An Ordinal Approach to Measurement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 219-31, March.
  2. Barja, Gover & Urquiola, Miguel, 2003. "Capitalization and Privatization in Bolivia: An Aproximation to an Evaluation," MPRA Paper 23049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Barja, Gover & Urquiola, Miguel, 2001. "Capitalization, regulation and the poor: access to basic services in Bolivia," MPRA Paper 23920, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2001.
  4. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
  5. Andersen, Lykke E., 2003. "Baja movilidad social en Bolivia:causas y consecuencias para el desarrollo," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 1, pages 11-36, Septiembr.
  6. Deaton, A. & Zaidi, S., 1999. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," Papers 192, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  7. Gover Barja Daza & Javier Monterrey Arce & Sergio Villarroel Bohrt, 2005. "The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand for Non-Tradable Goods in Bolivia," Research Department Publications 3181, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  8. Lanjouw, Jean Olson & Lanjouw, Peter, 1997. "Poverty comparisons with non-compatible data: theory and illustrations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1709, The World Bank.
  9. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D & Robinson, Sherman, 1993. "External Shocks, Purchasing Power Parity, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(1), pages 45-63, January.
  10. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  11. Theile, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "Attacking Poverty in Bolivia – Past Evidence and Future Prospects: Lessons from a CGE Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 6/2003, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Behrman, Jere R., 2009. "Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms, Volume Two: A Practitioner's Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Market, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling. A," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(03), pages 396-397, July.
  2. Yanez-Pagans, Monica, 2008. "Culture and Human Capital Investments: Evidence of an Unconditional Cash Transfer Program in Bolivia," IZA Discussion Papers 3678, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Essama-Nssah, B., 2005. "The poverty and distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks and policies : a review of modeling approaches," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3682, The World Bank.
  4. Aline Coudouel & Stefano Paternostro, 2006. "Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms : A Practitioner’s Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Markets, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling, Volume 2," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7041, October.
  5. Marta Moratti, 2010. "Consumption Poverty and Pro-Poor Growth in Bolivia," Working Paper Series 1310, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  6. Anonymous, 2009. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 5, Issue 1," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 5(1).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.