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Attacking Poverty in Bolivia – Past Evidence and Future Prospects: Lessons from a CGE Analysis

Author

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  • Theile, Rainer

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

  • Wiebelt, Manfred

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

Abstract

This paper reviews Bolivia’s economic and social development over the period 1985-99, and investigates the country’s future prospects for pro-poor growth using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. It turns our that past economic growth cannot be called pro-poor. Model simulations show that under optimistic assumptions the growth and poverty goals envisaged in the Bolivian poverty reduction strategy may be achieved, but that performance wick fall short of expectations once external shocks are taken into account. The evolution of poverty is likely to remain uneven, with considerable improvements in urban areas and a high persistence is rural areas. Instituto de Investigaciones Socio - Económicas; IISEC

Suggested Citation

  • Theile, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "Attacking Poverty in Bolivia – Past Evidence and Future Prospects: Lessons from a CGE Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 6/2003, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2003_006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2000. "Sind die Anpassungsprogramme von IWF und Weltbank gescheitert? Eine Bilanz der Erfahrungen von zwei Jahrzehnten," Kiel Discussion Papers 357, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
    3. Jemio M., Luis Carlos, 2001. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Bolivia since the 1970s: Adjustment to What, By Whom, and How? Analytical Insights from a SAM Model," Kiel Working Papers 1031, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Woden, Q.T. & Ayres, W. & Barenstein, M. & Hicks, N. & Lee, K. & Maloney, W. & Peeters, P. & Siaens, C. & Yitzjaki, S., 2000. "Poverty and Policy in Latin America and Caribeean," Papers 467, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    5. Rainer Thiele & Daniel Piazolo, 2003. "A Social Accounting Matrix for Bolivia Featuring Formal and Informal Activities," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 285-318.
    6. Government of Bolivia & Gobierno de Bolivia, 2001. "Bolivia: Poverty Reduction Strategy," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 80367, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Rainer Thiele, 2003. "The social impact of structural adjustment in Bolivia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 299-319.
    8. Schweickert, Rainer & Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "Makroökonomische Reformen und Armutsbekämpfung in Bolivien: ebnet die HIPC-Initiative den Weg zu sozialverträglicher Anpassung?," Kiel Discussion Papers 398, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barja Daza, Gover & Monterrey Arce, Javier & Villarroel Böhrt, Sergio, 2006. "Bolivia: Impact of shocks and poverty policy on household welfare," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 6, pages 63-123, Abril.
    2. Aliaga Lordemann, Jevier & Villegas Quino, Horacio, 2011. "Poverty, Indigence and Public Investment in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 5/2011, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    3. Tellería, Roberto & Ludeña, Carlos & Fernández, Soraya, 2011. "Policy alternatives and strategies for the Plurinational State of Bolivia following the end of trade preferences," Documentos de Proyectos 3922, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Unknown, 2009. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 5, Issue 1," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 5(1), pages 180-180, June.
    5. Jann Lay & Rainer Thiele & Manfred Wiebelt, 2008. "Shocks, Policy Reforms and Pro‐Poor Growth in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 37-56, February.
    6. Carlos Gustavo Machicado, 2006. "Welfare Gains from Optimal Policy in a Partially Dollarized Economy," Development Research Working Paper Series 10/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Poverty Income Distribution CGE Analysis Bolivia; Instituto de Investigaciones Socio - Económicas; IISEC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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