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The social rate of return on infrastructure investments

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Author Info
Canning, David
Bennathan, Esra

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Abstract

The authors estimate social rates of return to electricity-generating capacity and paved roads, relative to the return on general capital, by examining the effect on aggregate output and comparing that effect with the costs of construction. They find that both types of infrastructure capital are highly complementary with other physical capital and human capital, but have rapidly diminishing returns if increased in isolation. The complementarities on the one hand, and diminishing returns on the other, point to the existence of an optimal mix of capital inputs, making it very easy for a country to have too much - or too little - infrastructure. For policy purposes, the authors compare the rate of return for investing in infrastructure with the estimated rate of return to capital. The strong complementarity between physical and human capital, and the lower prices of investment goods in industrial economies, means that the rate of return to capital as a whole is just as high in rich countries as in the poorest countries but is highest in the middle-income (per capita) countries. In most countries the rates of return to both electricity-generating capacity and paved roads are on a par with, or lower than, rates of return on other forms of capital. But in a few countries there is evidence of acute shortages of electricity-generating capacity and paved roads and, therefore, excess returns to infrastructure investment. Excess returns are evidence of suboptimal investment that, in the case of paved roads, appears to follow a period of sustained economic growth during which road-building stocks have lagged behind investments in other types of capital. This effect is accentuated by the fact that the relative costs of road construction are lower in middle-income countries than in poorer and richer countries. As a rule, a tendency to infrastructure shortages - signaled by higher social rates of return to paved roads or electricity-generating capacity than to other forms of capital - is symptomatic of certain income classes of developing countries: electricity capacity in the poorest, paved roads in the middle-income group. To the extent that such high rates of return are not detected by microeconomic cost-benefit analysis, they suggest macroeconomic externalities associated with infrastructure.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2390.

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Date of creation: 31 Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2390

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Keywords: Decentralization; Banks&Banking Reform; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform; Environmental Economics&Policies; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Inequality;

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stephane Straub, 2008. "Infrastructure and Growth in Developing Countries: Recent Advances and Research Challenges," ESE Discussion Papers 179, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hurlin, Christophe, 2006. "Network effects of the productivity of infrastructure in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3808, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Straub, Stephane, 2008. "Infrastructure and development : a critical appraisal of the macro level literature," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4590, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Federica Maiorano & Jon Stern, 2007. "Institutions and Infrastructure Investment in Low and Middle-Income Countries: The Case of Mobile Communications," City University Economics Discussion Papers 07/06, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
  5. Arestoff, Florence & Hurlin, Christophe, 2006. "Estimates of government net capital stocks for 26 developing countries, 1970-2002," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3858, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Juan Manuel Larrosa, 2003. "A Compositional Statistical Analysis of Capital per Worker," Macroeconomics 0301006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Musisi, A.A., 2006. "Physical public infrastructure and private sector output/productivity in Uganda: a firm level analysis," Working Papers - General Series 424, Institute of Social Studies. [Downloadable!]
  8. Andreas Kopp, 2005. "Aggregate Productivity Effects of Road Investment - A Reassessment for Western Europe," ERSA conference papers ersa05p631, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Araújo, Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos, 2006. "On the Economic and Fiscal Effects of Infrastructure Investment in Brazil," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 613, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  10. Torrisi, Gianpiero, 2009. "Public infrastructure: definition, classification and measurement issues," MPRA Paper 12990, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ianchovichina, Elena & Liu, Lili & Nagarajan, Mohan, 2006. "Subnational fiscal sustainability analysis : what can we learn from Tamil Nadu ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3947, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hallward-Driemeier, Mary & Wallsten, Scott & Lixin Colin Xu, 2003. "The investment climate and the firm : firm-level evidence from China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3003, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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