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Adjustment and income distribution : a counterfactual analysis

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  • Bourguinon, Francois
  • Branson, William H.
  • De Melo, Jaime

Abstract

This paper presents model simulations to quantify the effects of different stabilization packages in the distribution of income and wealth. The simulations suggest that a sharply contractionary stabilization package has a major adverse impact on the distribution of income. The shifts in distribution are likely to make the package less sustainable. The simulations support the view that stabilization packages which do not have specific components targeted to the poor will redistribute income in a way that, although transitory, is likely to permanently harm those below the poverty line - in terms of things like nutrition, health, and education. The sharp redistributive effects of stabilization packages that omit specific targeted policies to alleviate poverty are also likely to endanger the sustainability of the adjustment package.

Suggested Citation

  • Bourguinon, Francois & Branson, William H. & De Melo, Jaime, 1989. "Adjustment and income distribution : a counterfactual analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 215, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vittorio Corbo & Jaime de Melo & James Tybout, 2015. "What Went Wrong with the Recent Reforms in the Southern Cone," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 2, pages 21-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Jaime de MELO & Sherman ROBINSON, 2015. "Trade Adjustment Policies And Income Distribution In Three Archetype Developing Economies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 10, pages 217-242, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Dell, Sidney, 1982. "Stabilization: The political economy of overkill," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(8), pages 597-612, August.
    4. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Jolly, Richard & Stewart, Frances (ed.), 1987. "Adjustment with a Human Face: Volume 1, Protecting the Vulnerable and Promoting Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286097.
    5. François Bourguignon & William H. Branson & Jaime de Melo, 1989. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution: A Macro-Micro Simulation Model," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 1, OECD Publishing.
    6. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 1986. "Fund-Supported Programs, Fiscal Policy, and Income Distribution," IMF Occasional Papers 1986/006, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Social Accounting Matrix: A Very Short Introduction for Economic Modeling," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-477, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. Sahn, David E. & Dorosh, Paul & Younger, Stephen, 1996. "Exchange rate, fiscal and agricultural policies in Africa: Does adjustment hurt the poor?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 719-747, April.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5149 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Anne Maasland, 1992. "Consecuencias Distributivas de las Políticas de Ajuste: Una Revisión de Metodologías," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 29(86), pages 141-162.
    5. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty Reduction in General Equilibrium: The Role of Labor Market Structure," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-462, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Jorge Alarcon & Jan Van Heemst & Niek De Jong, 2000. "Extending the SAM with Social and Environmental Indicators: An Application to Bolivia," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 473-496.
    7. Maasland, Anne, 1990. "Methods for measuring the effect of adjustment policies on income distribution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 474, The World Bank.
    8. Aliaga Lordemann, Jevier & Villegas Quino, Horacio, 2011. "Poverty, Indigence and Public Investment in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 5/2011, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    9. Jemio M., Luis Carlos & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2002. "Macroeconomic impacts of external shocks and anti-shock policies in Bolivia: a CGE analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1100, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Howard White, 1996. "Adjustment in Africa," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 785-815, October.
    11. Khan, haider, 2008. "Analyzing Poverty Impact of Trade Liberalization Policies in CGE Models: Theory and Some Policy Experiments in Agricultural and Non-agricultural Sectors in South Asia," MPRA Paper 7609, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2008.
    12. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Social Accounting Matrices(SAMs) and CGE Modeling:Using Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Models for Assessing Poverty Impact of Structural Adjustment Policies," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-463, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    13. Dorosh, Paul A. & Sahn, David E., 2000. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Effect of Macroeconomic Adjustment on Poverty in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 753-776, November.
    14. Zafar Iqbal & Rizwana Siddiqui, 2001. "Critical Review of Literature on Computable General Equilibrium Models," MIMAP Technical Paper Series 2001:09, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    15. Wiebelt, Manfred, 2004. "GEM-PIA: A real-financial general equilibrium model for poverty impact analysis technical description," Kiel Working Papers 1230, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. White, Howard & Luttik, Joke & DEC, 1994. "The countrywide effects of aid," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1337, The World Bank.

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