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Are Cigarette Bans Really Good Economic Policy?

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Abstract

We investigate the quarterly relationship between the quantity of cigarettes sold, real disposable income per capita, and the relative price level of cigarettes in Canada. Careful attention is paid to the non-stationarity of the data and the dynamic specification of the model. We conclude that cigarette demand is extremely insensitive to price and income changes. This is evidence of the large consumer surplus smokers enjoy and the large revenue increasing potential of a cigarette tax increase policy, as opposed to cigarette bans.

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File URL: http://web.uvic.ca/econ/research/papers/ewp9903.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 9903.

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Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 21 May 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:9903

Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2
Phone: (250)721-6197
Fax: (250)721-6214
Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ
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Keywords: Cigarettes; exise tax; consumer surplus;

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References

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  4. Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Hylleberg, S. & Lee, H.S., 1990. "Seasonal Cointegration: The Japanese Consumption Function," Economics Working Papers 1990-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  5. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Jonathan Gruber & Anindya Sen & Mark Stabile, 2002. "Estimating Price Elasticities When there is Smuggling: The Sensitivity of Smoking to Price in Canada," NBER Working Papers 8962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Auld, M. Christopher & Grootendorst, Paul, 2004. "An empirical analysis of milk addiction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1117-1133, November.
  3. Dritsakis, Nikolaos, 2003. "Forecasting Cigarette Consumption in Greece: An empirical investigation with cointegration analysis," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 4(2), August.

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