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A seasonal unit-root test with Stata

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  • Domenico Depalo

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Many economic time series exhibit important systematic fluctuations within the year, i.e., seasonality. In contrast to usual practice, I argue that using original data should always be considered, although the process is more compli- cated than that of using seasonally adjusted data. Motivations to use unadjusted data come from the information contained in their peaks and troughs and from economic theory. One major complication is the possible unit root at seasonal frequencies. In this article, I tackle the issue of implementing a test to identify the source of seasonality. In particular, I follow Hylleberg et al. (1990, Journal of Econometrics 44: 215–238) for quarterly data. Copyright 2009 by StataCorp LP.

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  • Domenico Depalo, 2009. "A seasonal unit-root test with Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(3), pages 422-438, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsj:stataj:v:9:y:2009:i:3:p:422-438
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lee, Lung-fei, 1995. "Semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation of polychotomous and sequential choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 381-428, February.
    2. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hylleberg, S. & Lee, H. S., 1993. "The Japanese consumption function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 275-298.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1258-1279, December.
    5. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    6. Gianluca Cubadda, 2001. "Complex Reduced Rank Models For Seasonally Cointegrated Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 497-511, September.
    7. Philip Hans Franses & Bart Hobijn, 1997. "Critical values for unit root tests in seasonal time series," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 25-48.
    8. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
    9. Osborn, Denise R, 1988. "Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life Cycle Model of Consumptio n," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 255-266, October-D.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Randjelovic, Sasa, 2013. "Effects of income tax on personal savings: econometric evidence from Serbia," EUROMOD Working Papers EM1/13, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Silva, Andres & Dharmasena, Senarath, 2013. "Modeling Seasonal Unit Roots as a Simple Empirical Method to Handle Autocorrelation in Demand Systems: Evidence from UK Expenditure Data," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149928, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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