Monetary Policy Transparency:Lessons from Germany and the Eurozone
AbstractThe conduct of monetary policy emphasises institutional arrangements which make monetary policy decision-making more ‘transparent’. Judged by these institutional features neither the Bundesbank, nor the ECB, score very highly. We test for (i) agents’ average ability to anticipate policy rate changes under the Bundesbank and the ECB and (ii) and agents’ forecasting unanimity of money market rates. Rising forecasting uncertainty may either be due to a lack of ECB transparency or to larger inflation and growth forecasting errors. Our results indicate that inflation forecast spreads widened amongst private agents and that inflation forecasting uncertainty increased the forecasting spread of money market rates
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol in its series Working Papers with number 0410.
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Frenchay Campus, Coldharbour Lane, Bristol BS16 1QY
Phone: 0117 328 3610
Web page: http://www1.uwe.ac.uk/bl/research/bristoleconomics.aspx
More information through EDIRC
transparency; yield curve; forecasting uncertainty; Bundesbank; ECB;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-03-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-03-11 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2006-03-11 (European Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2006-03-11 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-FOR-2006-03-11 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2006-03-11 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-03-11 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William Poole & Robert H & Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-94.
- Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002.
"Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?,"
Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers
0229, Banco de Espa�a.
- Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 0192, European Central Bank.
- Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England.
- Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May.
- Kevin Ross, 2002. "Market Predictability of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions," IMF Working Papers 02/233, International Monetary Fund.
- Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000.
"Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets,"
99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
- Charles Goodhart, 2005. "The interest rate conditioning assumption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24666, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Menno Middeldorp, 2011.
"Central Bank Transparency, the Accuracy of Professional Forecasts, and Interest Rate Volatility,"
11-12, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "Central bank transparency, the accuracy of professional forecasts, and interest rate volatility," Staff Reports 496, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Tomáš Holinka, 2010. "Learning Process and Transparency of Central Bank," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(4), pages 458-470.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Felix Ritchie).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.