Monetary Policy Uncertainty: Is There a Difference Between Bank of England and the Bundesbank/ECB?
AbstractIt is widely believed that institutional arrangements influence the quality of monetary policy outcomes. Judged on its ‘transparency’ characteristics, therefore the Bank of England should do better than both the Bundesbank and ECB. However, studies based on market evidence show that on average, agents anticipate policy moves by both banks equally well. Since benefits from transparency should also show in a narrowing of the diversity in cross sectional forecasts, this paper extends the existing literature in an attempt to reconcile the contradictory evidence on ‘transparency’ of both banks. We show that the diversity in interest rate forecasts is greater under the Bundesbank/ECB than the Bank of England. Other factors than ‘transparency’ do not seem to affect interest rate uncertainty in Germany. Increasing difficulty in forecasting inflation appears to explain in part UK interest rate forecast dispersion.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol in its series Working Papers with number 0613.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
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Phone: 0117 328 3610
Web page: http://www1.uwe.ac.uk/bl/research/bristoleconomics.aspx
More information through EDIRC
transparency; yield curve; forecasting uncertainty; Bank of England; Bundesbank; ECB;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-01-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2007-01-13 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2007-01-13 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-01-13 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-01-13 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 98/43, International Monetary Fund.
- Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002.
"Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?,"
Working Paper Series, European Central Bank
0192, European Central Bank.
- Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers, Banco de Espaï¿½a 0229, Banco de Espa�a.
- Kevin Ross, 2002. "Market Predictability of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 02/233, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 106, Bank of England.
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