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Sale Price Expectations and Mortgage Commitment: Inaccuracy versus Price Setting Behaviour

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Author Info
Martijn I. Dröes ()
Wolter H.J. Hassink ()

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Abstract

This paper investigates why the homeowner's expectation about the sale price of a house deviates from its market price. This paper has two distinct contributions. First, we argue that sale price expectations are individual specific. Omitting this individual effect leads to biased hedonic estimates. As a result, hedonic estimates conditional on individual characteristics are preferred. Second, we economically interpret the individual effect in terms of inaccuracy of homeowners and a specific type of price setting behaviour ("fishing for a relatively high selling price"). In particular, we focus on the role of mortgage commitment, which is measured by the loan-to-income ratio. We argue that homeowners with a higher loan-to-income ratio are less likely to move. Consequently, they incur a low opportunity cost of fishing. They are also less inclined to search. As a result, homeowners with a higher loan-toincome ratio might have more incentive to fish for a higher sale price, but they may also be less accurate with regard to the market price. Our estimates confirm these two hypotheses.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Utrecht School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 09-24.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:0924

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Related research
Keywords: house price; sale price expectation; mark-up; mortgage;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  1. Chiuri, Maria Concetta & Jappelli, Tullio, 2003. "Financial market imperfections and home ownership: A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 857-875, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Katherine A. Kiel & Jeffrey E. Zabel, 1999. "The Accuracy of Owner-Provided House Values: The 1978-1991 American Housing Survey," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 263-298. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Anglin, Paul M & Rutherford, Ronald & Springer, Thomas M, 2003. "The Trade-Off Between the Selling Price of Residential Properties and Time-on-the-Market: The Impact of Price Setting," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 95-111, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Yannis M. Ioannides & Jeffrey E. Zabel, 2003. "Neighbourhood effects and housing demand," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(5), pages 563-584. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "The Role of the List Price in Housing Markets: Theory and an Econometric Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 115-29, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng, 2006. "Estimating House Price Indexes in the Presence of Seller Reservation Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 100-112, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Herrin, William E. & Knight, John R. & Sirmans, C.F., 2004. "Price cutting behavior in residential markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 195-207, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gatzlaff, Dean H. & Haurin, Donald R., 1998. "Sample Selection and Biases in Local House Value Indices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 199-222, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 255-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behaviour: Evidence from the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R. & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge, 1986. "Alternative value estimates of owner-occupied housing: Evidence on sample selection bias and systematic errors," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 356-369, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Michel Glower & Donald R. Haurin & Patric H. Hendershott, 1998. "Selling Time and Selling Price: The Influence of Seller Motivation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 719-740. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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