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Estimating House Price Indexes in the Presence of Seller Reservation Prices

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Author Info
William Goetzmann (Yale School of Management)
Liang Peng (University of Colorado at Boulder)

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Abstract

We analyze a bias in transaction-based price indexes due to the presence of seller reservation prices. We develop a model in which the ratio of sellers' reservation prices to the market value affects trading volume and biases of observed transaction prices: when trading volume decreases (increases), index returns are estimated with an upward (downward) bias. We propose a new econometric procedure to mitigate the bias, and use simulations to demonstrate the effectiveness of the procedure. We construct a reserve-conditional unbiased index for the Los Angeles housing market, which substantially differs from a traditional repeat sale index. Copyright (c) 2006 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/rest.2006.88.1.100
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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 88 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 100-112
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:88:y:2006:i:1:p:100-112

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  1. Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege & Liang Peng, 2008. "Venture Capital and Sequential Investments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1682, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Nov 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hazer Inaltekin & Robert Jarrow & Mehmet Saglam & Yildiray Yildirim, 2009. "Housing Market Microstructure," Quantitative Finance Papers 0907.1853, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jim Clayton & Greg MacKinnon & Liang Peng, 2008. "Time Variation of Liquidity in the Private Real Estate Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 125-160. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martijn I. Dröes & Wolter H.J. Hassink, 2009. "Sale Price Expectations and Mortgage Commitment: Inaccuracy versus Price Setting Behaviour," Working Papers 09-24, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-12.


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